KillsBetter playRisk
Line
31.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.6
Hit
52.1%
EV+
-9.8%
Edge
-1.9
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
21.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
20.82
Hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.8%
Edge
-0.7
L10
70%
#139Ranked 139 of 277 on the board

Rifler
KWERTZZ
UNiTY vs Acend
RISK · UNDER 31.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP31.5SL31.5
▲ L5 30.4 · L20 29.1Risk · Edge -1.9 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 31.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
68%
13/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.2
Previous meeting · vs Acend
No meeting with Acend in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
26.8
3/4 hit at 31.5
Online · this match
29.7
10/15 hit at 31.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KWERTZZ is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 31.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 60.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 31 kills or fewer: below 0.734 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (5.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
29.6
Raw edge
-1.9
Cons. hit
52.1%
EV+
-9.8%
Rating
3.2/10
Exp. rounds
42.9
Line
31.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.1%
-0.3 →
Learned
51.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 29.5-33.5
All players · Kills
42.3%213 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 64.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.9 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 60% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 68.4% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 6% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.26) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.4 kills vs line 31.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 70%. Next: vs Acend, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 28.4 against a 31.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (73%) — fewer total rounds
- 26% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.6 vs line 31.5 → -1.9 (-6.0%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 42.9 rounds · 2-0 73% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.55
HS/Map
10.24
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.71
ADR
75.1
KAST
71.7%
HS%
70.3%
Multi-kill
19%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)14.8 · KPR 0.697 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Cache)14.4 · KPR 0.695 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.734
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.86
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-2.01%
Final projected kills29.26
Acend gives up (32 series)0% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 31.5. Model: 64.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.7%
~25 kills · 36r89.9%
Normal52.2%
~31 kills · 45r54.8%
Close maps13.3%
~32 kills · 46r50.1%
Overtime5.8%
~36 kills · 52r24.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 09:00 AMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 60.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 60% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
21.7r
-2% KPR here
M2 Cache
21.2r
-2% KPR here
Total
42.9r
2-0 sweep73%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)19.1%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 31.5 (Under) · avg 28.4 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
31.5
Nearby lines
| 29.5 Under | 41.2% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 47.7% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 52.1% | OFFERED |
| 32.5 Under | 56% | below BE |
| 33.5 Under | 60.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 31.5
Line movement
first 31.5→31.5no change
- First seen31.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.69
HS%
68.3%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.76
HS%
76.1%
K/D
1.14
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
65.3%
K/D
1.1
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
66.7%
K/D
0.99
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.67
HS%
71.7%
K/D
0.94
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.5
HS%
77.8%
K/D
0.6
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
20
KPR
1.33
HS%
80%
K/D
2.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Betclic | 23 Ancient 13-11 | 12 Cache 6-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-21 | FOKUS | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 15 Cache 7-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | 9INE | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 7 Cache 3-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | mellren | 19 Mirage 13-5 | 11 Inferno 13-4 | 30 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 20 Mirage 13-6 | 18 Cache 13-11 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 13 Ancient 13-11 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | NT | 16 Mirage 13-5 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | INFINITE | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 12 Mirage 13-7 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | aimclub | 18 Dust2 13-5 | 15 Cache 13-4 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Illyrians | 9 Inferno 13-1 | 16 Dust2 7-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 18 Ancient 16-14 | 22 Dust2 13-9 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-15 | Phantom Academy | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 24 Ancient 13-11 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 15 Cache 13-8 | 7 Mirage 6-13 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | ENCE | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 31 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Leo | 18 Mirage 12-16 | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | MOUZ NXT | 13 Cache 13-8 | 12 Mirage 13-4 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-07 | EAC | 14 Inferno 8-13 | 9 Nuke 5-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | Black Phoenix | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 20 Anubis 13-2 | 33 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | INOX Division | 13 Ancient 11-13 | 14 Inferno 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































