KillsTake
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.92
Hit
66.1%
EV+
+14.5%
Edge
+5.4
L10
80%
HeadshotsBetter playTake
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
20.65
Hit
67%
EV+
+16.0%
Edge
+4.2
L10
90%

Rifler
PokemoN
Alter Ego vs NEXVOID
TAKE · OVER 16.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSUD16.5SL16.5
▲ L5 22.6 · L20 19.3
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±3.63
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
0/1 hit · avg 11 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-26 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: Asia - Cup 1
Dust2 13-7 · Inferno 5-13 · Split
11
Under 16.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
16.5
1/2 hit at 16.5
Online
19.6
12/18 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm PokemoN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 19
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~27 kills at 62% HS): 0.617 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (22.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
20.65
Raw edge
+4.2
Cons. hit
67%
EV+
+16.0%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.1
Line
16.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
67%
-8.1 →
Learned
58.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%247 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 87.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 90.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (19.81) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.0 headshots vs line 16.5 (9/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 62%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 22.0 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 20.65 vs line 16.5 → +4.15 (25.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 90% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.1 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.57
HS/Map
9.65
K/D
1
KPR
0.74
ADR
82.2
KAST
74.4%
HS%
62%
Multi-kill
18.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)9.8 · KPR 0.708 · 22.3r
Map 2 (Ancient)10 · KPR 0.775 · 20.8r
Required KPR to clear0.617
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.91
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.12%
Final projected kills31.95
× realistic HS% (62%)20.65
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)0% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 87.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.3%
~17 HS · 36r56.2%
Normal42.7%
~20 HS · 42r77.7%
Close maps18.3%
~22 HS · 46r88.1%
Overtime16.7%
~25 HS · 52r95.8%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 42% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
22.3r
-4% KPR here
M2 Ancient
20.8r
+5% KPR here
Total
43.1r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 22.0 · hit 9/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 67.4% | |
| 15.5 Over | 67.3% | |
| 16.5 Over | 67% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 66.4% | |
| 18.5 Over | 65.3% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 19
Line movement
first 15.5→16.5+1
- Back on board15.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 01:08 PM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 01:06 PM
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 01:02 PM
Map stats
Dust2
14 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.7
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.03
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.79
HS%
66.4%
K/D
1.18
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.63
HS%
54.1%
K/D
0.83
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.66
HS%
68.3%
K/D
0.93
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.78
HS%
56%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.79
HS%
61.2%
K/D
1.14
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
65.2%
K/D
0.82
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
54.8%
K/D
0.82
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Lynn Vision | 6 Anubis 13-9 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-13 | Just Swing | 9 Cache 10-13 | 18 Dust2 19-15 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Chinggis Warriors | 12 Inferno 13-9 | 11 Dust2 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | The KnockoutX | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 17 Cache 13-10 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitalem Aerem | 16 Ancient 16-14 | 7 Mirage 13-6 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | The Huns | 13 Ancient 13-11 | 11 Cache 12-16 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Kaleido | 7 Ancient 13-3 | 13 Dust2 14-16 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-07 | Legion | 4 Dust2 13-2 | 15 Anubis 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Just Swing | 6 Cache 13-9 | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | The Huns | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 14 Ancient 13-7 | 24 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Nas | 8 Mirage 13-8 | 8 Dust2 13-3 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Kaleido | 4 Dust2 10-13 | 11 Ancient 13-4 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | NEXVOID | 3 Dust2 13-7 | 8 Inferno 5-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | QuantumX | 5 Ancient 13-1 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-05-12 | THUNDER dOWNUNDER | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 10 Dust2 8-13 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-11 | Lynn Vision | 11 Dust2 10-13 | 3 Overpass 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-04-27 | TYLOO | 6 Mirage 5-13 | 4 Nuke 1-13 | 10 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-04-26 | The QUBE | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 8 Mirage 16-14 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-03-26 | FengDa | 11 Nuke 13-10 | 11 Mirage 13-16 | 22 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-03-25 | The QUBE | 14 Overpass 14-16 | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |









































































































































































