KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.15
Hit
49.3%
EV+
-14.7%
Edge
+0.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
9.23
Hit
47.3%
EV+
-18.1%
Edge
-0.3
L10
40%
#185Ranked 185 of 277 on the board

AWPer
r1nkle
G2 vs Aurora
RISK · OVER 27
BEST OVER · PP 27PP27UD27.5SL27.5
≈ L5 26.8 · L20 27.7Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 27 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Low
±4.96
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
2/2 hit · avg 40 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 7-13 · Inferno 19-16 · Split
33
Over 27 ✓
2026-08-26 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Inferno 13-5 · Anubis 16-12 · W
47
Over 27 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
27.7
11/20 hit at 27
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm r1nkle is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 40.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 28+ kills: 0.619 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (22.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
27.15
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
49.3%
EV+
-14.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
27
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.3%
+8.7 →
Learned
58%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 25-29
All players · Kills
55.1%265 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (27.3) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.5 kills vs line 27.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 32%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 25.5 against a 27.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.15 vs line 27 → +0.15 (0.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.85
HS/Map
4.47
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.57
ADR
61.4
KAST
72.7%
HS%
32.3%
Multi-kill
13.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)12.3 · KPR 0.586 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)15 · KPR 0.662 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.619
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.27
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.13%
Final projected kills27.3
Aurora gives up (91 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 27. Model: 51.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.9%
~23 kills · 37r16.8%
Normal46.3%
~27 kills · 43r42.6%
Close maps14.1%
~29 kills · 47r59.9%
Overtime16.7%
~33 kills · 53r81.5%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 40.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 40% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21r
+3% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.6r
+16% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27 (Over) · avg 25.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
27
Nearby lines
| 25 Over | 59.5% | |
| 26 Over | 54% | below BE |
| 27 Over | 49.3% | OFFERED |
| 28 Over | 44.5% | below BE |
| 29 Over | 35.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27
Line movement
first 27→27no change
- First seen27Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.59
HS%
36.5%
K/D
1.01
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.7
HS%
32%
K/D
1.23
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
35.1%
K/D
1
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
25.9%
K/D
1.27
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
25.4%
K/D
1
Cache
4 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.59
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.96
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.38
HS%
22.2%
K/D
0.64
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Natus Vincere | 9 Nuke 11-13 | 26 Dust2 19-22 | 35 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 14 Ancient 7-13 | 10 Anubis 13-9 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 18 Ancient 13-9 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Ancient 13-1 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 14 Cache 7-13 | 6 Inferno 4-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 9 Ancient 9-13 | 10 Mirage 10-13 | 19 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 8 Mirage 7-13 | 21 Anubis 16-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 12 Ancient 16-14 | 18 Dust2 13-3 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 12 Inferno 13-9 | 11 Ancient 13-4 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 8 Cache 8-13 | 19 Mirage 13-7 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 26 Mirage 19-17 | 40 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 7 Inferno 6-13 | 10 Dust2 9-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 23 Inferno 19-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 16 Ancient 13-6 | 14 Inferno 13-10 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 19 Dust2 6-13 | 10 Cache 9-13 | 29 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 15 Inferno 13-5 | 32 Anubis 16-12 | 47 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 8 Ancient 3-13 | 8 Anubis 13-3 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 19 Dust2 13-6 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 16 Cache 13-5 | 13 Ancient 13-16 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |








































































































































































