
AWPer
podi
FOKUS vs ex-6666
LEAN · OVER 29.5
▲ L5 34.8 · L20 31.6
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
80%
8/10
L20
73%
11/15
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.43
Previous meeting · vs ex-6666
1/1 hit · avg 44 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 13-3 · Nuke 16-13 · W
44
Over 29.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
27
2/4 hit at 29.5
Online · this match
33.3
9/11 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm podi is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.66 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.97
Raw edge
+2.5
Cons. hit
61.7%
EV+
+6.9%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.7
Line
29.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.7%
+7.9 →
Learned
69.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
56%332 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.5 below ±3.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 15 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 80.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 73.3% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.76) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.2 kills vs line 29.5 (8/10 over). KPR 0.71, HS 30%. Next: vs ex-6666, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 32.2 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 31.97 vs line 29.5 → +2.47 (8.4%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 80% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.7 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 15.7%
Performance (last 30 maps)
Kills/Map
15.8
HS/Map
4.77
K/D
1.25
KPR
0.71
ADR
72.3
KAST
79.5%
HS%
30.2%
Multi-kill
14.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)15.3 · KPR 0.67 · 22.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)15.4 · KPR 0.702 · 21.9r
Required KPR to clear0.66
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.65
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.37%
Final projected kills30.76
ex-6666 gives up (29 series)+2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 63% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~27 kills · 38r31.6%
Normal51.6%
~31 kills · 44r60.2%
Close maps12.7%
~34 kills · 48r75.1%
Overtime15.7%
~39 kills · 54r90.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
22.8r
-5% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
44.7r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)28.4%
Overtime15.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 32.2 · hit 8/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 64.3% | |
| 28.5 Over | 63.2% | |
| 29.5 Over | 61.7% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 56.8% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 52.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→offno change
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
10 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
28.8%
K/D
1.12
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
29%
K/D
1.29
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.68
HS%
29.9%
K/D
1.4
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
18.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
27%
K/D
1.17
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
17.3
KPR
0.83
HS%
42.3%
K/D
1.73
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.68
HS%
28%
K/D
1.19
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | ex-6666 | 17 Ancient 13-3 | 27 Nuke 16-13 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-21 | UNiTY | 15 Mirage 8-13 | 15 Cache 13-7 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 22 Cache 16-13 | 13 Nuke 13-7 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | BBL | 11 Nuke 13-5 | 10 Cache 4-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-28 | Nemiga | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 34 Mirage 20-22 | 44 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Iberian Soul | 21 Anubis 13-11 | 10 Cache 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | SPARTA | 14 Dust2 14-16 | 16 Cache 13-7 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-21 | Sangal | 19 Dust2 13-3 | 13 Nuke 11-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | Astralis | 13 Cache 11-13 | 8 Ancient 8-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Sashi | 15 Dust2 13-11 | 19 Nuke 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-13 | Sashi | 19 Dust2 13-11 | 10 Nuke 7-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Leo | 14 Cache 13-5 | 16 Anubis 13-2 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-12 | Virtus.pro | 15 Cache 13-11 | 15 Mirage 10-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-10 | 1win | 21 Cache 19-17 | 15 Anubis 13-11 | 36 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 17 Cache 13-11 | 10 Mirage 13-10 | 27 | W | Under ✗ |








































































































































































