KillsRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
23.49
Hit
44.4%
EV+
-23.0%
Edge
-1.0
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.59
Hit
54.1%
EV+
-6.3%
Edge
+0.1
L10
70%

Rifler
Kind0
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Nuclear TigeRES
RISK · OVER 11.5
≈ L5 11.6 · L20 12.0Risk · Edge +0.1 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 11.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±2.84
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
0/1 hit · avg 10 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-25 · Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-7 · Dust2 14-16 · Split
10
Under 11.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
12
11/20 hit at 11.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Kind0 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 12+ HS (~24 kills at 49.8% HS): 0.554 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (25.7%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
11.59
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
54.1%
EV+
-6.3%
Rating
4/10
Exp. rounds
41.7
Line
11.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
54.1%
-8.7 →
Learned
45.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 9.5-13.5
All players · Headshots
59.1%132 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Near the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (11.59) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.1 headshots vs line 11.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 50%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 12.1 against a 11.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 11.59 vs line 11.5 → +0.09 (0.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.7 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 5.6%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.05
HS/Map
6
K/D
0.88
KPR
0.6
ADR
71.6
KAST
71.5%
HS%
49.8%
Multi-kill
12.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)5.8 · KPR 0.568 · 20.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)5.8 · KPR 0.562 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.554
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.56
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.22%
Final projected kills23.27
× realistic HS% (49.8%)11.59
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 11.5. Model: 51.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.7%
~10 HS · 35r27.7%
Normal39.3%
~12 HS · 43r51.8%
Close maps29.4%
~12 HS · 45r58%
Overtime5.6%
~14 HS · 51r74%
Match context
Oct 24, 05:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Cache
20.6r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.1r
Total
41.7r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime5.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 11.5 (Over) · avg 12.1 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
11.5
Nearby lines
| 9.5 Over | 65% | |
| 10.5 Over | 60.7% | |
| 11.5 Over | 54.1% | OFFERED |
| 12.5 Over | 41.9% | below BE |
| 13.5 Over | 28.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 11.5→offno change
- Pulled12.5Oct 24, 05:06 PM
- Moved up11.5 → 12.5Oct 24, 03:27 PM
- Back on board11.5 → 11.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled11.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen11.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
13.1
KPR
0.61
HS%
50.8%
K/D
1
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.6
HS%
52.5%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
51.2%
K/D
1
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.53
HS%
47.6%
K/D
0.73
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.57
HS%
43.8%
K/D
0.76
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.86
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | FOKUS | 8 Cache 13-16 | 4 Nuke 7-13 | 12 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | FORZE Reload | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 3 Cache 11-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Bushido Wildcats | 9 Mirage 13-7 | 9 Inferno 13-1 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | UNiTY | 0 Mirage 6-13 | 7 Cache 11-13 | 7 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Just Players | 7 Mirage 13-7 | 5 Cache 13-4 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Acend | 5 Cache 13-10 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | MASONIC | 5 Nuke 9-13 | 9 Dust2 13-2 | 14 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Leo | 6 Nuke 10-13 | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Butterfly | 7 Inferno 13-11 | 6 Mirage 13-2 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | EAC | 6 Inferno 13-7 | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | Black Phoenix | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 6 Cache 13-11 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Saint Sinners | 1 Inferno 0-1 | 4 Mirage 13-9 | 5 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Illyrians | 2 Mirage 7-13 | 9 Cache 13-2 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Nuclear TigeRES | 3 Inferno 13-7 | 7 Dust2 14-16 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | BIG Academy | 5 Cache 13-5 | 6 Dust2 13-6 | 11 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | STATE | 6 Inferno 13-9 | 4 Nuke 10-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 7 Dust2 13-10 | 13 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | INOX Division | 12 Cache 13-8 | 9 Nuke 13-11 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | PCIFIC | 4 Inferno 5-13 | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-16 | Teletubisie | 5 Dust2 10-13 | 7 Mirage 5-13 | 12 | L | Over ✓ | BO |









































































































































































