KillsBetter playRisk
Line
24.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.43
Hit
50.3%
EV+
-12.9%
Edge
-1.1
L10
70%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.32
Hit
46.4%
EV+
-19.7%
Edge
-0.2
L10
60%

Rifler · IGL
kyxsan
Aurora vs The MongolZ
RISK · UNDER 13.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP13.5UD13.5
▲ L5 14.6 · L20 13.1Risk · Edge -0.2 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 13.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.97
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
1/1 hit · avg 12 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 16-12 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
12
Under 13.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
13.1
10/20 hit at 13.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm kyxsan is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 13 HS or fewer (under ~25 kills at 55.5% HS): below 0.538 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.32
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
46.4%
EV+
-19.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.2
Line
13.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
46.4%
+8.7 →
Learned
55.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
39.3%224 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.8% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.77) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.0 headshots vs line 13.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.51, HS 56%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 13.0 against a 13.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 13.32 vs line 13.5 → -0.18 (-1.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45.2 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
11.75
HS/Map
6.53
K/D
0.81
KPR
0.51
ADR
61.5
KAST
71.7%
HS%
55.5%
Multi-kill
11.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.6 · KPR 0.506 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)6.2 · KPR 0.514 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.538
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.05
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills23.01
× realistic HS% (55.5%)13.32
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-5.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 13.5. Model: 51.8% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~11 HS · 38r75.9%
Normal42.8%
~13 HS · 45r55.6%
Close maps22.8%
~14 HS · 48r44.1%
Overtime12.2%
~16 HS · 54r27.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
23.4r
-2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.8r
Total
45.2r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Under) · avg 13.0 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Under | 28.7% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 38.4% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 46.4% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Under | 54.2% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 58.9% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13.5
Line movement
first 13.5→13.5no change
- Back on board13.5 → 13.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled13.5Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- First seen13.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
12.1
KPR
0.5
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.76
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.69
HS%
54.7%
K/D
1.07
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
51.1%
K/D
0.78
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
9.3
KPR
0.47
HS%
66.2%
K/D
0.65
Cache
5 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
50.8%
K/D
1.08
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
6.2
KPR
0.36
HS%
52%
K/D
0.44
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 10 Inferno 16-12 | 2 Nuke 2-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 8 Anubis 8-13 | 11 Dust2 19-17 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 4 Dust2 8-13 | 5 Inferno 10-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 11 Cache 13-11 | 8 Inferno 13-4 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Cache 13-9 | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 0 Nuke 1-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 7 Anubis 13-6 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 4 Anubis 13-7 | 8 Cache 7-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 5 Dust2 13-9 | 5 Anubis 13-8 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 7 Mirage 13-4 | 6 Nuke 7-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 3 Mirage 4-13 | 4 Dust2 10-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 0 Dust2 13-3 | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 1 Anubis 4-13 | 6 Inferno 13-11 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 13-7 | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 4 Cache 13-7 | 10 Mirage 19-17 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 5 Nuke 13-8 | 14 Mirage 13-7 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 8 Anubis 13-7 | 7 Inferno 16-19 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | DENDELE | 4 Cache 13-7 | 13 Mirage 16-12 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | OT |







































































































































































