KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.5
Hit
49.3%
EV+
-14.7%
Edge
-2.0
L10
30%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.72
Hit
48.9%
EV+
-15.3%
Edge
-0.8
L10
30%
#196Ranked 196 of 277 on the board

AWPer
Jorko
Liquid vs FUT
RISK · UNDER 9.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP9.5UD9.5SL9.5
▲ L5 10.8 · L20 9.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
30%
3/10
L20
43%
6/14
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.83
Previous meeting · vs FUT
No meeting with FUT in his last 14 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
9.1
6/14 hit at 9.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Jorko is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~31 kills at 32.6% HS): below 0.747 KPR over ~39 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10.6%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
8.72
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
48.9%
EV+
-15.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.9%
-8.6 →
Learned
40.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
44.4%72 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 30.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 42.9% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 30.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 42.9% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (7.82) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.0 headshots vs line 9.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.68, HS 33%. Next: vs FUT, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 10.0 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 8.72 vs line 9.5 → -0.78 (-8.2%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 30% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 39 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
14.04
HS/Map
4.57
K/D
1.28
KPR
0.68
ADR
66.6
KAST
73.8%
HS%
32.6%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)4.3 · KPR 0.663 · 20.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)3.6 · KPR 0.59 · 18.9r
Required KPR to clear0.747
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.48
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.94%
Final projected kills24
× realistic HS% (32.6%)8.72
FUT gives up (43 series)+1.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 60.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps40.1%
~7 HS · 33r79.1%
Normal46.6%
~9 HS · 42r53.3%
Close maps2.7%
~9 HS · 42r54.4%
Overtime10.6%
~11 HS · 48r38.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 28% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Inferno
20.1r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
18.9r
-7% KPR here
Total
39r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)40.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 10.0 · hit 3/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 33.2% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 41% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 48.9% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 60.3% | |
| 11.5 Under | 63.5% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→9.5no change
- First seen9.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.72
HS%
26.7%
K/D
1.38
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.6
HS%
31.6%
K/D
1
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.73
HS%
46.6%
K/D
1.4
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
32.8%
K/D
1.39
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.86
HS%
27.9%
K/D
1.74
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
10.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
19.4%
K/D
1
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.45
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.72
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 7 Ancient 13-16 | 5 Inferno 16-12 | 12 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 9 Anubis 10-13 | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 15 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 1 Inferno 7-13 | 4 Cache 4-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 4 Nuke 10-13 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 7 Cache 13-2 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 2 Dust2 0-13 | 5 Inferno 13-8 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 2 Nuke 9-13 | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 6 Anubis 13-9 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 9 Cache 16-13 | 1 Anubis 13-2 | 10 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 6 Dust2 13-11 | 4 Mirage 13-10 | 10 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 4 Inferno 13-3 | 8 Cache 13-4 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 1 Dust2 5-13 | 3 Anubis 13-6 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 6 Cache 13-9 | 3 Inferno 13-10 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 3 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 3 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































