KillsBetter playRisk
Line
25
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.54
Hit
51.6%
EV+
-10.7%
Edge
-1.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
11.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.65
Hit
49.7%
EV+
-13.9%
Edge
-0.8
L10
50%

Rifler · IGL
Boombl4
BetBoom vs Team Spirit
RISK · UNDER 25
BEST UNDER · PP 25PP25UD24.5
▼ L5 24.0 · L20 25.2Risk · Edge -1.5 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 25 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.13
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
25.2
11/20 hit at 25
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Boombl4 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 33.5%
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 24 kills or fewer: below 0.556 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (18.9%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.54
Raw edge
-1.5
Cons. hit
51.6%
EV+
-10.7%
Rating
3.5/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
25
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.6%
+8.6 →
Learned
60.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 23-27
All players · Kills
42.9%140 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 19% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (23.34) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.1 kills vs line 21.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.51, HS 45%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 24.1 against a 21.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 23.54 vs line 25 → -1.46 (-5.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 7.8% · OT 18.9%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.6
HS/Map
5.62
K/D
0.83
KPR
0.51
ADR
63
KAST
69.5%
HS%
44.6%
Multi-kill
11.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)13.4 · KPR 0.604 · 21.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)10 · KPR 0.42 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.556
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.91
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+1.92%
Final projected kills23.34
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25. Model: 58.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~20 kills · 38r79.5%
Normal36.2%
~22 kills · 42r67.2%
Close maps24.4%
~25 kills · 48r48.5%
Overtime18.9%
~28 kills · 54r31.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:40 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 33.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 34% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Anubis
21.7r
+25% KPR here
M2 Ancient
23.3r
-13% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep7.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)43.3%
Overtime18.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25 (Under) · avg 24.1 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
25
Nearby lines
| 23 Under | 40.9% | below BE |
| 24 Under | 46.2% | below BE |
| 25 Under | 51.6% | OFFERED |
| 26 Under | 54.7% | below BE |
| 27 Under | 59% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25
Line movement
first 21.5→25+3.5
- Back on board21.5 → 25Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled21.5Oct 24, 10:03 AM
- First seen21.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.69
HS%
43.8%
K/D
1.02
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
11.1
KPR
0.54
HS%
41.6%
K/D
0.83
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.55
HS%
40.5%
K/D
0.88
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
49.4%
K/D
0.91
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
10.6
KPR
0.41
HS%
45.3%
K/D
0.62
Cache
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
55.1%
K/D
0.7
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.5
HS%
35%
K/D
0.65
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | FURIA | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 6 Ancient 19-16 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Falcons | 7 Anubis 5-13 | 16 Dust2 16-14 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-16 | Legacy | 21 Nuke 16-13 | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-15 | PARIVISION | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 16 Anubis 13-4 | 26 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | FURIA | 9 Ancient 10-13 | 15 Mirage 9-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 9z | 12 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | M80 | 17 Cache 16-14 | 14 Anubis 13-11 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | FURIA | 5 Mirage 5-13 | 15 Cache 14-16 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | G2 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 21 Anubis 13-16 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-10 | MIBR | 11 Mirage 13-9 | 24 Anubis 16-14 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-09 | Astralis | 20 Ancient 16-14 | 25 Anubis 13-8 | 45 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-08 | BIG | 11 Cache 13-8 | 12 Nuke 13-9 | 23 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 3 Nuke 3-13 | 13 Anubis 11-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | FaZe | 6 Cache 2-13 | 8 Ancient 6-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-03 | Nemesis | 11 Mirage 10-13 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-18 | Aurora | 17 Nuke 6-13 | 8 Anubis 9-13 | 25 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-15 | FUT | 19 Mirage 13-7 | 18 Dust2 13-7 | 37 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Vitality | 17 Overpass 8-13 | 19 Nuke 11-13 | 36 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-13 | FURIA | 3 Overpass 6-13 | 9 Dust2 6-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ |







































































































































































