KillsRisk
Line
32
Pick
OVER
Projection
32.33
Hit
50.3%
EV+
-12.9%
Edge
+0.3
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
11.19
Hit
59.7%
EV+
+3.4%
Edge
+0.7
L10
70%

AWPer
saadzin
Imperial vs BESTIA
RISK · OVER 32
≈ L5 32.0 · L20 31.1Risk · Edge +0.3 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 32 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
36%
5/14
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
Low
±5.24
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
0/2 hit · avg 24.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 7-13 · Mirage 7-13 · L
24
Under 32 ✗
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 10-13 · Nuke 13-2 · Split
25
Under 32 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.2
5/13 hit at 32
Online
29
0/1 hit at 32
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm saadzin is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 32
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 63.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.721 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (28.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
32.33
Raw edge
+0.3
Cons. hit
50.3%
EV+
-12.9%
Rating
1.7/10
Exp. rounds
44.4
Line
32
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.3%
+8.7 →
Learned
59%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 30-34
All players · Kills
56.9%144 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 52.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.7% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.7% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (32.47) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.1 kills vs line 32.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 35%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 32.1 against a 32.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 32.33 vs line 32 → +0.33 (1.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.4 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 13.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
15.54
HS/Map
5.39
K/D
1.35
KPR
0.73
ADR
73.8
KAST
79.9%
HS%
34.7%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)16.2 · KPR 0.703 · 23.2r
Map 2 (Nuke)16.3 · KPR 0.772 · 21.2r
Required KPR to clear0.721
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.68
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.62%
Final projected kills32.47
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32. Model: 52.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps28.3%
~27 kills · 37r15.8%
Normal30.6%
~32 kills · 44r46.2%
Close maps27.5%
~35 kills · 48r62.6%
Overtime13.6%
~39 kills · 54r84.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 63.5%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 64% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Mirage
23.2r
-4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
21.2r
+5% KPR here
Total
44.4r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)41.1%
Overtime13.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)28.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32 (Over) · avg 32.1 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
32
Nearby lines
| 30 Over | 60.7% | |
| 31 Over | 56.2% | below BE |
| 32 Over | 50.3% | OFFERED |
| 33 Over | 45.9% | below BE |
| 34 Over | 37.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 32
Line movement
first 32→offno change
- Pulled32Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board32 → 32Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled32Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen32Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
30.3%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.79
HS%
37.7%
K/D
1.57
Cache
4 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
38.7%
K/D
1.27
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
46.8%
K/D
1.24
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
25.4%
K/D
1.34
Dust2
4 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.86
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.56
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | paiN | 12 Inferno 13-3 | 15 Anubis 14-16 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 11 Dust2 13-4 | 23 Mirage 16-14 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | BESTIA | 16 Dust2 7-13 | 8 Mirage 7-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Turma do Pagode | 19 Anubis 13-10 | 24 Cache 16-14 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | DENDELE | 14 Mirage 8-13 | 18 Inferno 11-13 | 32 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | NRG | 10 Inferno 4-13 | 20 Dust2 13-7 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Without a Roof | 17 Dust2 13-4 | 21 Nuke 13-9 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-27 | paiN | 13 Anubis 13-4 | 18 Cache 13-11 | 31 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Bounty Hunters | 21 Mirage 13-9 | 13 Nuke 13-7 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Galorys | 21 Cache 16-12 | 7 Inferno 13-6 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Juventus | 16 Anubis 13-6 | 19 Nuke 13-3 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | BESTIA | 13 Mirage 10-13 | 12 Nuke 13-2 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 13 Mirage 13-6 | 12 Cache 8-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | Bounty Hunters | 17 Mirage 13-10 | 12 Nuke 11-13 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ |








































































































































































