KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.38
Hit
48.2%
EV+
-16.6%
Edge
-0.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
13.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.75
Hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.8%
Edge
+1.3
L10
60%

Rifler
m1quse
INOX Division vs Brute
RISK · OVER 13.5
≈ L5 15.6 · L20 15.4Risk · Edge +1.2 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 13.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
63%
12/19
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.76
Previous meeting · vs Brute
No meeting with Brute in his last 19 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
15.4
12/19 hit at 13.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm m1QUSE is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 14+ HS (~27 kills at 51% HS): 0.577 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (19%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.75
Raw edge
+1.3
Cons. hit
58.8%
EV+
+1.8%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.9
Line
13.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
58.8%
-7.5 →
Learned
51.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
60.7%224 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 63.2% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.38) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.5 headshots vs line 13.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 51%. Next: vs Brute, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 15.5 against a 13.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 14.75 vs line 13.5 → +1.25 (9.3%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45.9 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 12.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
15.11
HS/Map
7.71
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.66
ADR
73.4
KAST
72.4%
HS%
51%
Multi-kill
15.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)7.6 · KPR 0.638 · 23.5r
Map 2 (Anubis)6.8 · KPR 0.596 · 22.4r
Required KPR to clear0.577
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.34
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.50%
Final projected kills28.2
× realistic HS% (51%)14.75
Brute gives up (32 series)-2.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 13.5. Model: 60.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps19%
~12 HS · 39r36.9%
Normal57.5%
~15 HS · 46r57.9%
Close maps10.7%
~16 HS · 49r67%
Overtime12.8%
~18 HS · 55r79.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 59% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
23.5r
-3% KPR here
M2 Anubis
22.4r
-9% KPR here
Total
45.9r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)23.5%
Overtime12.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)19%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13.5 (Over) · avg 15.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Over | 65.3% | |
| 12.5 Over | 62.9% | |
| 13.5 Over | 58.8% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Over | 54.6% | below BE |
| 15.5 Over | 47.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13.5
Line movement
first 13.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 02:12 PM
- Moved up13.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 01:16 PM
- Back on board13.5 → 13.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled13.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen13.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Dust2
10 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.8
Anubis
8 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.8
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
16.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
46.6%
K/D
1.05
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.75
HS%
47.6%
K/D
1.17
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
18.5
KPR
0.81
HS%
52.7%
K/D
1.16
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.66
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.91
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Aces | 16 Dust2 7-13 | 10 Nuke 13-8 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | PRIVATE | 6 Anubis 6-13 | 7 Dust2 3-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | SINNERS | 11 Inferno 13-6 | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-07 | CYBERSHOKE | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 6 Anubis 7-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 10 Dust2 11-13 | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 18 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | HEROIC | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 9 Dust2 17-19 | 15 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | B8 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 9 Mirage 4-13 | 17 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | INFINITE | 5 Inferno 13-4 | 3 Dust2 9-13 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Eternal Fire | 10 Ancient 16-13 | 9 Anubis 13-10 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | magic | 3 Anubis 13-11 | 6 Ancient 13-5 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-01 | Color | 9 Dust2 9-13 | 11 Inferno 13-2 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-24 | CYBERSHOKE | 9 Ancient 13-8 | 8 Anubis 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-06 | Butterfly | 5 Inferno 13-7 | 8 Nuke 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-06 | Sashi | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 10 Anubis 11-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-05 | CYBERSHOKE Prospects | 6 Ancient 13-9 | 9 Inferno 22-20 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-04 | Just Players | 7 Dust2 13-11 | 2 Anubis 13-9 | 9 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-07-24 | Echo | 5 Anubis 8-13 | 15 Nuke 14-16 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-07-23 | 100 Thieves | 12 Ancient 19-15 | 7 Mirage 8-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































