KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.05
Hit
52.9%
EV+
-8.4%
Edge
-2.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
14
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.37
Hit
54.6%
EV+
-5.4%
Edge
-1.6
L10
50%

Rifler · IGL
buda
BESTIA vs Imperial
RISK · UNDER 27.5
≈ L5 27.4 · L20 27.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 27.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
67%
2/3
Volatility
High
±8.81
Previous meeting · vs Imperial
2/3 hit · avg 27 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 13-7 · Mirage 13-7 · W
35
Over 27.5 ✗
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 13-10 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
19
Under 27.5 ✓
2026-08-15 · BetBoom Storm 4
Nuke 10-13 · Inferno 13-9 · Split
27
Under 27.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
28.4
6/11 hit at 27.5
Online
27.3
6/9 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm buda is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: below 0.686 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
25.05
Raw edge
-2.5
Cons. hit
52.9%
EV+
-8.4%
Rating
1.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.1
Line
27.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.9%
-8.7 →
Learned
44.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
44.1%331 picks
This player
33.3%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.04) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.3 kills vs line 27.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.62, HS 50%. Next: vs Imperial, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 28.3 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 25.05 vs line 27.5 → -2.45 (-8.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.1 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.95
HS/Map
6.97
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.62
ADR
72.4
KAST
68.1%
HS%
50%
Multi-kill
14.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)12.6 · KPR 0.62 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)11.5 · KPR 0.586 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.686
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.19
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.65%
Final projected kills24.04
Imperial gives up (59 series)-10.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27.5. Model: 61% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~21 kills · 34r81%
Normal57.6%
~26 kills · 41r62.6%
Close maps8.3%
~27 kills · 43r56.7%
Overtime10%
~31 kills · 49r40%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 36% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
+7% KPR here
M2 Dust2
19.7r
+1% KPR here
Total
40.1r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Under) · avg 28.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Under | 45.5% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 48.2% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 52.9% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Under | 55.3% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 57.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→offno change
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board27.5 → 27.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled27.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen27.5Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.3%
K/D
0.89
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
50.4%
K/D
0.86
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
56%
K/D
0.87
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.83
HS%
44.1%
K/D
1.33
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
10.8
KPR
0.51
HS%
44.4%
K/D
0.7
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
6.5
KPR
0.34
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.48
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 16 Ancient 13-9 | 11 Inferno 13-11 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 16 Dust2 13-7 | 19 Mirage 13-7 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 15 Dust2 7-13 | 17 Cache 13-5 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 17 Mirage 10-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 9 Mirage 6-13 | 9 Cache 6-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 18 Cache 16-14 | 20 Mirage 19-16 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 18 Mirage 16-13 | 28 Inferno 22-19 | 46 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 5 Nuke 2-13 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 9 Ancient 13-7 | 15 Mirage 13-2 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 10 Ancient 10-13 | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 15 Inferno 13-3 | 14 Mirage 13-2 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 7 Mirage 4-13 | 7 Dust2 7-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 19 Cache 7-13 | 11 Ancient 4-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Imperial | 8 Nuke 10-13 | 19 Inferno 13-9 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | ALKA | 15 Cache 8-13 | 8 Dust2 13-8 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | Isurus | 10 Cache 7-13 | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Yawara | 12 Mirage 8-13 | 16 Dust2 9-13 | 28 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-05 | Grêmio | 30 Inferno 13-6 | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 47 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-04 | METANOIA Wolves | 14 Dust2 13-8 | 13 Mirage 13-5 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | MIBR | 12 Cache 9-13 | 15 Inferno 8-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ |







































































































































































