KillsBetter playRisk
Line
22.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
24.1
Hit
50.5%
EV+
-12.5%
Edge
+1.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.83
Hit
49.5%
EV+
-14.3%
Edge
+0.3
L10
60%

Rifler
Techno4k
The Mongolz vs Team Vitality
RISK · OVER 22.5
UD22.5
▲ L5 27.6 · L20 24.5Risk · Edge +1.6 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 22.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.3
Previous meeting · vs Team Vitality
No meeting with Team Vitality in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.7
10/18 hit at 22.5
Online
23
1/2 hit at 22.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Techno4K is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 22.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 19.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 23+ kills: 0.554 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (63.5%) or blowout (33.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
24.1
Raw edge
+1.6
Cons. hit
50.5%
EV+
-12.5%
Rating
1.7/10
Exp. rounds
40.6
Line
22.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.5%
+8.6 →
Learned
59.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 20.5-24.5
All players · Kills
68.2%44 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Blowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 64% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (22.59) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.1 kills vs line 22.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.60, HS 60%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 24.1 against a 22.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.1 vs line 22.5 → +1.6 (7.1%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.6 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.25
HS/Map
7.3
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.6
ADR
67.7
KAST
72%
HS%
59.6%
Multi-kill
13.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)11.2 · KPR 0.576 · 19.7r
Map 2 (Mirage)11.4 · KPR 0.556 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.554
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.98
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.69%
Final projected kills22.59
Team Vitality gives up (100 series)-10.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 22.5. Model: 60% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.6%
~20 kills · 34r31.4%
Normal43.9%
~25 kills · 43r68%
Close maps12.5%
~26 kills · 43r70.6%
Overtime10%
~29 kills · 49r87.1%
Match context
Oct 25, 11:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 19.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 20% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Inferno
19.7r
+3% KPR here
M2 Mirage
20.9r
-1% KPR here
Total
40.6r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 22.5 (Over) · avg 24.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
22.5
Nearby lines
| 20.5 Over | 60.2% | |
| 21.5 Over | 55.9% | below BE |
| 22.5 Over | 50.5% | OFFERED |
| 23.5 Over | 44.8% | below BE |
| 24.5 Over | 41% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 22.5
Line movement
first 22.5→22.5no change
- First seen22.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.62
HS%
56.1%
K/D
0.93
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.59
HS%
61.5%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.48
HS%
62.3%
K/D
0.74
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.6
HS%
62.5%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.8%
K/D
1
Cache
3 maps
Kills
9.7
KPR
0.49
HS%
58.6%
K/D
0.69
Overpass
2 maps
Kills
8.5
KPR
0.46
HS%
47.1%
K/D
0.68
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Aurora | 19 Inferno 12-16 | 9 Nuke 13-2 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | PARIVISION | 12 Ancient 13-6 | 13 Mirage 13-11 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | BIG | 12 Cache 4-13 | 10 Inferno 13-3 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | PRIVATE | 12 Mirage 13-6 | 11 Ancient 13-7 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | magic | 25 Inferno 13-9 | 15 Ancient 13-10 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | BIG | 9 Cache 8-13 | 8 Mirage 4-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-19 | Alliance | 14 Inferno 13-8 | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Falcons | 8 Inferno 3-13 | 12 Dust2 9-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | paiN | 11 Nuke 13-10 | 7 Inferno 13-4 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Natus Vincere | 8 Inferno 5-13 | 13 Ancient 13-9 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-31 | FaZe | 14 Nuke 12-16 | 8 Mirage 13-7 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | Wildcard | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 19 Inferno 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-24 | HEROIC | 7 Nuke 5-13 | 8 Cache 13-8 | 15 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | 9z | 6 Inferno 8-13 | 9 Overpass 8-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | Monte | 7 Nuke 9-13 | 11 Inferno 13-7 | 18 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-06-13 | Natus Vincere | 13 Nuke 13-8 | 25 Ancient 13-16 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-06-12 | B8 | 20 Mirage 16-14 | 8 Overpass 13-3 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-06-11 | BetBoom | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 13 Mirage 6-13 | 26 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | Legacy | 12 Inferno 11-13 | 13 Mirage 13-10 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-22 | PARIVISION | 14 Dust2 13-4 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |









































































































































































