KillsLean
Line
26.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.29
Hit
59.4%
EV+
+2.8%
Edge
+2.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
16.18
Hit
61.3%
EV+
+6.2%
Edge
+1.7
L10
70%

Rifler
kL1o
ex-6666 vs FOKUS
LEAN · OVER 26.5
▼ L5 27.4 · L20 29.2
Hit rates at 26.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±6.58
Previous meeting · vs FOKUS
1/1 hit · avg 31 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 3-13 · Nuke 13-16 · L
31
Over 26.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
29.2
12/20 hit at 26.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm kL1o is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 27+ kills: 0.597 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.29
Raw edge
+2.8
Cons. hit
59.4%
EV+
+2.8%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.4
Line
26.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
59.4%
+2.8 →
Learned
62.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 24.5-28.5
All players · Kills
56%273 picks
This player
100%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 66.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.11) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.8 kills vs line 26.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 54%. Next: vs FOKUS, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 27.8 against a 26.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 29.29 vs line 26.5 → +2.79 (10.5%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.4 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.6
HS/Map
7.92
K/D
0.93
KPR
0.63
ADR
74.5
KAST
72.7%
HS%
54.3%
Multi-kill
14.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)14 · KPR 0.666 · 21.1r
Map 2 (Nuke)16.1 · KPR 0.691 · 23.3r
Required KPR to clear0.597
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.15
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills30.11
FOKUS gives up (48 series)+2.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 26.5. Model: 66.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~25 kills · 37r34.7%
Normal42.8%
~29 kills · 44r65.3%
Close maps22.8%
~31 kills · 48r78.9%
Overtime12.2%
~35 kills · 54r92.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Anubis
21.1r
+6% KPR here
M2 Nuke
23.3r
+10% KPR here
Total
44.4r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 26.5 (Over) · avg 27.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
26.5
Nearby lines
| 24.5 Over | 63.9% | |
| 25.5 Over | 62.6% | |
| 26.5 Over | 59.4% | OFFERED |
| 27.5 Over | 54.9% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 51.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26.5
Line movement
first 26.5→offno change
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- Back on board26.5 → 25.5Oct 24, 05:56 AM
- Pulled26.5Oct 24, 05:54 AM
- First seen26.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.68
HS%
56.2%
K/D
0.91
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
17.1
KPR
0.71
HS%
50.4%
K/D
1
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.66
HS%
53.5%
K/D
0.94
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.61
HS%
56%
K/D
0.82
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.69
HS%
59.1%
K/D
0.99
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
50.9%
K/D
0.92
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FOKUS | 8 Ancient 3-13 | 23 Nuke 13-16 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-23 | WBT Academy | 7 Nuke 7-13 | 14 Anubis 13-8 | 21 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | 6yuBoJlbl | 13 Mirage 11-13 | 13 Nuke 13-10 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Acend | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 26 Inferno 14-16 | 36 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | Bushido Wildcats | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 15 Inferno 13-9 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | Saint Sinners | 8 Dust2 13-5 | 10 Ancient 13-7 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | BRUTE | 9 Anubis 8-13 | 14 Mirage 11-13 | 23 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Lavked | 20 Nuke 13-8 | 14 Dust2 10-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | los kogutos | 19 Anubis 10-13 | 20 Nuke 11-13 | 39 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Fire Flux | 12 Nuke 13-10 | 15 Inferno 10-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Privateer | 14 Ancient 13-5 | 19 Nuke 13-9 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | G2 Ares | 16 Inferno 13-11 | 10 Dust2 13-2 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | mellren | 10 Dust2 4-13 | 13 Ancient 13-11 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Enjoy | 18 Anubis 10-13 | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Bushido Wildcats | 16 Dust2 13-9 | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | los kogutos | 23 Nuke 16-14 | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | GenOne | 11 Ancient 9-13 | 16 Inferno 16-12 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-13 | Black Phoenix | 11 Dust2 4-13 | 15 Anubis 8-13 | 26 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | megoshort | 20 Mirage 13-6 | 25 Anubis 16-13 | 45 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | benched gods | 5 Anubis 3-13 | 22 Dust2 13-9 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |








































































































































































