KillsBetter playRisk
Line
27
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.03
Hit
50.3%
EV+
-13.0%
Edge
-3.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.04
Hit
47.1%
EV+
-18.4%
Edge
-0.5
L10
50%

AWPer
cass1n
BESTIA vs Imperial
RISK · UNDER 9.5
▼ L5 9.0 · L20 10.2Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 9.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
67%
2/3
Volatility
High
±5.81
Previous meeting · vs Imperial
2/3 hit · avg 6 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-22 · Circuit X Curitiba 4
Dust2 13-7 · Mirage 13-7 · W
3
Under 9.5 ✓
2026-09-19 · Circuit X Curitiba 3
Mirage 13-10 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
5
Under 9.5 ✓
2026-08-15 · BetBoom Storm 4
Nuke 10-13 · Inferno 13-9 · Split
10
Over 9.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
10.4
6/11 hit at 9.5
Online
9.9
4/9 hit at 9.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm cass1n is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 9.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~27 kills at 36.9% HS): below 0.642 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.04
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
47.1%
EV+
-18.4%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
40.1
Line
9.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.1%
-8.5 →
Learned
38.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 7.5-11.5
All players · Headshots
44.4%72 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (9.06) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.8 headshots vs line 9.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 37%. Next: vs Imperial, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 10.8 against a 9.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 9.04 vs line 9.5 → -0.46 (-4.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.1 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.75
HS/Map
5.08
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.63
ADR
65.4
KAST
77.1%
HS%
36.9%
Multi-kill
14.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)4.6 · KPR 0.62 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)4.4 · KPR 0.612 · 19.7r
Required KPR to clear0.642
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.71
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.65%
Final projected kills24.55
× realistic HS% (36.9%)9.04
Imperial gives up (59 series)-10.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 9.5. Model: 53.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~8 HS · 34r70.4%
Normal57.6%
~9 HS · 41r59.1%
Close maps8.3%
~10 HS · 43r55.9%
Overtime10%
~11 HS · 49r46.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 36% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
+4% KPR here
M2 Dust2
19.7r
+3% KPR here
Total
40.1r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)18.3%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 9.5 (Under) · avg 10.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
9.5
Nearby lines
| 7.5 Under | 36.9% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 43% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 47.1% | OFFERED |
| 10.5 Under | 51.1% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 54.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 9.5
Line movement
first 9.5→offno change
- Pulled9.5Oct 24, 09:55 PM
- Back on board9.5 → 9.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- Pulled9.5Oct 24, 09:54 PM
- First seen9.5Oct 24, 05:25 AM
Map stats
Mirage
11 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
35.7%
K/D
1.22
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.66
HS%
33.9%
K/D
1.19
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
39.4%
K/D
1.04
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
38.8%
K/D
1.26
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.58
HS%
41%
K/D
1.05
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.37
HS%
28.6%
K/D
0.5
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Galorys | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 9 Inferno 13-11 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Imperial | 2 Dust2 13-7 | 1 Mirage 13-7 | 3 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | ShindeN | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 1 Cache 13-5 | 5 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Voca | 3 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Mirage 10-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | M80 | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 5 Cache 6-13 | 13 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Bounty Hunters | 11 Cache 16-14 | 6 Mirage 19-16 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | ShindeN | 12 Mirage 16-13 | 9 Inferno 22-19 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-19 | Imperial | 4 Mirage 13-10 | 1 Nuke 2-13 | 5 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-18 | CLANSBR | 2 Ancient 13-7 | 6 Mirage 13-2 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Galorys | 8 Ancient 10-13 | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 12 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | CLANSBR | 2 Inferno 13-3 | 4 Mirage 13-2 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | Virtus.pro | 5 Mirage 4-13 | 6 Dust2 7-13 | 11 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | HEROIC | 3 Cache 7-13 | 4 Ancient 4-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-15 | Imperial | 3 Nuke 10-13 | 7 Inferno 13-9 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | ALKA | 2 Cache 8-13 | 5 Dust2 13-8 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-09 | Isurus | 11 Cache 7-13 | 5 Dust2 13-7 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Yawara | 5 Mirage 8-13 | 4 Dust2 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-05 | Grêmio | 4 Inferno 13-6 | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 13 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-04 | METANOIA Wolves | 2 Dust2 13-8 | 1 Mirage 13-5 | 3 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-02 | MIBR | 6 Cache 9-13 | 7 Inferno 8-13 | 13 | L | Over ✗ |







































































































































































