KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.48
Hit
50%
EV+
-13.4%
Edge
-2.0
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
8.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
6.36
Hit
63.1%
EV+
+9.3%
Edge
-2.1
L10
60%
#11Ranked 11 of 277 on the board

AWPer
maxxkor
DENDELE vs Legacy
LEAN · UNDER 8.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP8.5SL8.5
▼ L5 5.8 · L20 7.8LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 8.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
9/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.44
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
7.5
7/13 hit at 8.5
Online
8.8
2/5 hit at 8.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm maxxkor is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 8
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 27.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 8 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 28.5% HS): below 0.736 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (11%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
6.36
Raw edge
-2.1
Cons. hit
63.1%
EV+
+9.3%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
8.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
63.1%
-8.5 →
Learned
54.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 6.5-10.5
All players · Headshots
48.1%52 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 80.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 11% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (6.6) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 7.2 headshots vs line 8.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 29%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 7.2 against a 8.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 6.36 vs line 8.5 → -2.14 (-25.2%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 57.5% · OT 11%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
13.72
HS/Map
3.92
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.64
ADR
67.5
KAST
75.8%
HS%
28.5%
Multi-kill
13.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)3.6 · KPR 0.593 · 21.4r
Map 2 (Cache)3 · KPR 0.556 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.736
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.32
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.63%
Final projected kills23.18
× realistic HS% (28.5%)6.36
Legacy gives up (79 series)-1.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 8.5. Model: 80.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps23.8%
~5 HS · 34r90.2%
Normal51.7%
~6 HS · 41r79.7%
Close maps13.5%
~7 HS · 43r75%
Overtime11%
~8 HS · 49r62.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 05:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 27.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 28% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Mirage
21.4r
-2% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.1r
-8% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep57.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)24.5%
Overtime11%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)23.8%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 8.5 (Under) · avg 7.2 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
8.5
Nearby lines
| 6.5 Under | 43.7% | below BE |
| 7.5 Under | 56.6% | below BE |
| 8.5 Under | 63.1% | OFFERED |
| 9.5 Under | 66.1% | |
| 10.5 Under | 67.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 8
Line movement
first 8.5→8.5no change
- First seen8.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
31.2%
K/D
1.06
Cache
8 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.57
HS%
32.2%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.63
HS%
22.4%
K/D
0.97
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
8.8
KPR
0.48
HS%
38.6%
K/D
0.76
Ancient
5 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.79
HS%
24.2%
K/D
1.4
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.81
HS%
24.6%
K/D
1.62
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FURIA | 0 Ancient 8-13 | 2 Inferno 11-13 | 2 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Wildcard | 3 Mirage 13-4 | 2 Nuke 8-13 | 5 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Imperial | 5 Mirage 13-8 | 3 Inferno 13-11 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Wildcard | 3 Mirage 13-16 | 4 Cache 3-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | M80 | 1 Inferno 13-7 | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Wildcard | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 5 Nuke 10-13 | 10 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 5 Ancient 16-13 | 10 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Voca | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 2 Cache 13-7 | 9 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Color | 4 Mirage 8-13 | 1 Cache 13-6 | 5 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | EYEBALLERS | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 3 Cache 13-3 | 9 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Aurora | 5 Cache 7-13 | 4 Mirage 12-16 | 9 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | Spirit | 4 Ancient 8-13 | 6 Cache 7-13 | 10 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-09 | JiJieHao | 4 Inferno 14-16 | 2 Cache 13-9 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-07 | SAW | 7 Inferno 13-10 | 2 Anubis 13-10 | 9 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-07 | QueenConso | 2 Nuke 13-0 | 3 Anubis 13-3 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | FaZe | 2 Nuke 2-13 | 5 Mirage 13-10 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-24 | FURIA | 5 Anubis 13-6 | 6 Mirage 6-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-11 | paiN | 6 Cache 13-11 | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 12 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































