KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
26.4
Hit
45.6%
EV+
-21.1%
Edge
-2.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.06
Hit
50.2%
EV+
-13.1%
Edge
-1.4
L10
70%
#161Ranked 161 of 277 on the board

Rifler
tN1R
Team Spirit vs TYLOO
RISK · UNDER 16.5
BEST UNDER · PP 16.5PP16.5UD15.5SL16.5
▼ L5 14.0 · L20 17.3Risk · Edge -1.4 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
50%
10/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.3
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
No meeting with TYLOO in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.3
10/20 hit at 16.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm tN1R is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 89.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~29 kills at 58% HS): below 0.715 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
15.06
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
50.2%
EV+
-13.1%
Rating
2.5/10
Exp. rounds
39.8
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.2%
+8.7 →
Learned
58.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
40.5%247 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.51) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.9 headshots vs line 16.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.66, HS 58%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.9 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.06 vs line 16.5 → -1.44 (-8.7%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 70% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.8 rounds · 2-0 67.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.88
HS/Map
8.62
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.66
ADR
73.2
KAST
71.4%
HS%
58%
Multi-kill
16.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)8.6 · KPR 0.75 · 20.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)6.9 · KPR 0.613 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.715
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.16
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.54%
Final projected kills26.75
× realistic HS% (58%)15.06
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 63.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.4%
~13 HS · 33r85.4%
Normal37.6%
~15 HS · 41r62.7%
Close maps27.2%
~16 HS · 43r55.5%
Overtime7.8%
~18 HS · 49r34.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 89.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 90% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Dust2
20.2r
+5% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.6r
-15% KPR here
Total
39.8r
2-0 sweep67.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 15.9 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 33.2% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 44.8% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 50.2% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 55.1% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 60.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- First seen16.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.7
HS%
58.3%
K/D
1.11
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.53
HS%
53.2%
K/D
0.79
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.59
HS%
60.5%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.16
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.74
HS%
56.3%
K/D
1.06
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
21.7
KPR
0.87
HS%
63.1%
K/D
1.3
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | BetBoom | 10 Anubis 13-10 | 4 Ancient 3-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 8 Mirage 9-13 | 7 Anubis 6-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 4 Dust2 7-13 | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 13 Mirage 13-8 | 5 Anubis 13-10 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 4 Cache 13-10 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 6 Cache 5-13 | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 9 Dust2 5-13 | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 6 Ancient 11-13 | 9 Dust2 13-6 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 12 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Nuke 13-11 | 25 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 11 Dust2 13-8 | 11 Mirage 11-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 6 Ancient 13-11 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 11 Cache 13-5 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 10 Dust2 13-6 | 13 Cache 13-9 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 7 Cache 13-7 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 7 Cache 10-13 | 15 Anubis 16-13 | 22 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 6 Dust2 13-7 | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 15 Anubis 13-11 | 16 Nuke 14-16 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 9 Mirage 13-9 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 4 Cache 9-13 | 6 Dust2 13-10 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 16 Dust2 19-15 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |








































































































































































