KillsRisk
Line
28
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.22
Hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.2%
Edge
+2.2
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
16
Pick
OVER
Projection
17.76
Hit
60%
EV+
+3.9%
Edge
+1.8
L10
60%
#35Ranked 35 of 277 on the board

Rifler
HeavyGod
G2 vs Aurora
LEAN · OVER 16
BEST OVER · PP 16PP16UD16.5SL16.5
≈ L5 17.0 · L20 17.4
Hit rates at 16 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
2/2
Volatility
Medium
±5.28
Previous meeting · vs Aurora
2/2 hit · avg 18 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-31 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Anubis 7-13 · Inferno 19-16 · Split
18
Over 16 ✓
2026-08-26 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Inferno 13-5 · Anubis 16-12 · W
18
Over 16 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
17.4
11/20 hit at 16
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm HeavyGod is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 40.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~29 kills at 59% HS): 0.622 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (53.5%) or blowout (22.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
17.76
Raw edge
+1.8
Cons. hit
60%
EV+
+3.9%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.6
Line
16
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
60%
+8 →
Learned
68%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14-18
All players · Headshots
59%234 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.8 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (18.09) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.4 headshots vs line 16.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 59%. Next: vs Aurora, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 18.4 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 17.76 vs line 16 → +1.76 (11.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43.6 rounds · 2-0 53.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.8
HS/Map
8.72
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.69
ADR
77.1
KAST
73.9%
HS%
59%
Multi-kill
18.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)8.8 · KPR 0.706 · 21r
Map 2 (Dust2)9.3 · KPR 0.699 · 22.6r
Required KPR to clear0.622
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.62
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.13%
Final projected kills30.66
× realistic HS% (59%)17.76
Aurora gives up (91 series)-0.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16. Model: 63.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.9%
~15 HS · 37r34.1%
Normal46.3%
~18 HS · 43r55.7%
Close maps14.1%
~19 HS · 47r67.7%
Overtime16.7%
~22 HS · 53r82.3%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 40.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 40% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
21r
+2% KPR here
M2 Dust2
22.6r
+1% KPR here
Total
43.6r
2-0 sweep53.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Over) · avg 18.4 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Over | 64.9% | |
| 15 Over | 63.5% | |
| 16 Over | 60% | OFFERED |
| 17 Over | 56.6% | below BE |
| 18 Over | 52.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16→16no change
- First seen16Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
12 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.71
HS%
59.6%
K/D
1.08
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.7
HS%
65.9%
K/D
1.09
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.1%
K/D
1.06
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.76
HS%
48.3%
K/D
1.28
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.53
HS%
48.1%
K/D
0.74
Cache
4 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.54
HS%
68.2%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.5
HS%
50%
K/D
0.75
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Natus Vincere | 6 Nuke 11-13 | 20 Dust2 19-22 | 26 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-06 | PARIVISION | 3 Ancient 7-13 | 7 Anubis 13-9 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | ShindeN | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Ancient 13-9 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 1win | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 8 Ancient 13-1 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Natus Vincere | 6 Cache 7-13 | 8 Inferno 4-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-13 | Legacy | 12 Ancient 9-13 | 8 Mirage 10-13 | 20 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | BetBoom | 4 Mirage 7-13 | 7 Anubis 16-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | FURIA | 13 Ancient 16-14 | 12 Dust2 13-3 | 25 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | 5star | 12 Inferno 13-9 | 8 Ancient 13-4 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | 9z | 11 Dust2 11-13 | 12 Ancient 13-8 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | BIG | 10 Cache 8-13 | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-08 | Astralis | 10 Ancient 9-13 | 7 Mirage 19-17 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Falcons | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 9 Dust2 9-13 | 15 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Aurora | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 9 Inferno 19-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | Natus Vincere | 11 Ancient 13-6 | 12 Inferno 13-10 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Spirit | 3 Dust2 6-13 | 9 Cache 9-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-26 | Aurora | 8 Inferno 13-5 | 10 Anubis 16-12 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-20 | FURIA | 5 Ancient 3-13 | 9 Anubis 13-3 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-19 | Astralis | 7 Ancient 6-13 | 11 Dust2 13-6 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | BIG | 5 Cache 13-5 | 9 Ancient 13-16 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | OTBO |








































































































































































