KillsLean
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.12
Hit
56.6%
EV+
-2.0%
Edge
+2.6
L10
43%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
16.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.77
Hit
60.8%
EV+
+5.2%
Edge
+2.3
L10
57%

Rifler
kwezz
STATE vs overTIME
LEAN · OVER 16.5
STAND-IN? · Altekz
Hit rates at 16.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
57%
4/7
L20
57%
4/7
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.58
Previous meeting · vs overTIME
1/1 hit · avg 21 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown
Anubis 13-3 · Nuke 13-1 · W
21
Over 16.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
21
1/1 hit at 16.5
Online · this match
17.7
3/6 hit at 16.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm kwezz is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 17
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 17+ HS (~31 kills at 54.5% HS): 0.698 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (26.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
18.77
Raw edge
+2.3
Cons. hit
60.8%
EV+
+5.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
43.4
Line
16.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
60.8%
-8.6 →
Learned
52.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
59.5%247 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Big enough sample: 7 recent series (need 8+)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 57.1% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 7 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 57.1% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 57.1% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (18.67) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 7 series Maps 1-2: avg 18.1 headshots vs line 16.5 (4/7 over). KPR 0.77, HS 55%. Next: vs overTIME, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 18.1 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (7 series)
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 18.77 vs line 16.5 → +2.27 (13.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 57.1% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.4 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 7.9%
Performance (last 14 maps)
Kills/Map
16.64
HS/Map
9.07
K/D
1.18
KPR
0.77
ADR
89
KAST
79.8%
HS%
54.5%
Multi-kill
19.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)10.4 · KPR 0.808 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)8.3 · KPR 0.783 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.698
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.58
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.91%
Final projected kills34.26
× realistic HS% (54.5%)18.77
overTIME gives up (10 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 16.5. Model: 69% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.3%
~16 HS · 37r41.2%
Normal33.7%
~19 HS · 44r69.8%
Close maps32.1%
~20 HS · 46r77.8%
Overtime7.9%
~23 HS · 52r90.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
23.8r
+4% KPR here
M2 Nuke
19.6r
+1% KPR here
Total
43.4r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime7.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
7 series · line 16.5 (Over) · avg 18.1 · hit 4/7 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Over | 64.9% | |
| 15.5 Over | 63.8% | |
| 16.5 Over | 60.8% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Over | 57.9% | |
| 18.5 Over | 52.1% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 17
Line movement
first 16.5→offno change
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 09:12 AM
- First seen16.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Cache
4 maps
Kills
21.2
KPR
0.83
HS%
58.8%
K/D
1.27
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.79
HS%
57.1%
K/D
1.24
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.51
HS%
43.5%
K/D
0.7
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.97
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.94
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.69
HS%
38.7%
K/D
0.91
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.86
HS%
47.4%
K/D
1.46
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | overTIME | 12 Anubis 13-3 | 9 Nuke 13-1 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | HOTU | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 10 Anubis 13-5 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | G2 Ares | 9 Ancient 13-9 | 18 Cache 15-19 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Famalicão | 5 Inferno 10-13 | 7 Cache 13-11 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Illyrians | 4 Mirage 11-13 | 15 Cache 13-11 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 5 Inferno 9-13 | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | KAMUI | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 10 Cache 13-7 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ |








































































































































































