HeadshotsLean
Line
13.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
10.65
Hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.3%
Edge
-2.9
L10
67%
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Rifler
DeStiNy
Galorys vs BESTIA
LEAN · UNDER 13.5
Hit rates at 13.5 (Under)
L5
67%
2/3
L10
67%
2/3
L20
67%
2/3
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±3.19
Previous meeting · vs BESTIA
No meeting with BESTIA in his last 3 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
10.3
2/3 hit at 13.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm DesTiny is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 43.5%
Unverified / missing: recent sample (<5 series) · Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 13 HS or fewer (under ~28 kills at 50.8% HS): below 0.583 KPR over ~46 rounds. Main danger: overtime (22.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
10.65
Raw edge
-2.9
Cons. hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.3%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.6
Line
13.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58.5%
-8.7 →
Learned
49.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 11.5-15.5
All players · Headshots
39.3%224 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 81.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Big enough sample: 3 recent series (need 8+)
- Game script fits: OT chance 23% (Unders hate OT)
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 3 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 66.7% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 66.7% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 23% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Evidence & risk
Last 3 series Maps 1-2: avg 10.3 headshots vs line 13.5 (1/3 over). KPR 0.45, HS 51%. Next: vs BESTIA, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 10.3 against a 13.5 line
Biggest risk: 50% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 50% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (3 series)
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 10.65 vs line 13.5 → -2.85 (-21.1%)
- • Form L5 66.7% · L10 66.7% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.6 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 22.7%
Performance (last 6 maps)
Kills/Map
10.17
HS/Map
5.17
K/D
0.57
KPR
0.45
ADR
61.2
KAST
63.1%
HS%
50.8%
Multi-kill
8.8%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)5.9 · KPR 0.5 · 23.3r
Map 2 (Inferno)4.8 · KPR 0.422 · 22.3r
Required KPR to clear0.583
Base kills (Maps 1-2)21.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.48%
Final projected kills20.96
× realistic HS% (50.8%)10.65
BESTIA gives up (72 series)+4.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 13.5. Model: 81.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps38.3%
~9 HS · 38r92.4%
Normal27.4%
~11 HS · 47r78.3%
Close maps11.6%
~11 HS · 49r74%
Overtime22.7%
~13 HS · 55r59.5%
Match context
Oct 23, 06:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 43.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 44% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Anubis
23.3r
+11% KPR here
M2 Inferno
22.3r
-6% KPR here
Total
45.6r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)34.3%
Overtime22.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)38.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
3 series · line 13.5 (Under) · avg 10.3 · hit 2/3 · tap a bar
13.5
Nearby lines
| 11.5 Under | 49.6% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 54.7% | below BE |
| 13.5 Under | 58.5% | OFFERED |
| 14.5 Under | 60.8% | |
| 15.5 Under | 62.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13
Line movement
first 13.5→offno change
- Pulled13.5Oct 23, 06:11 PM
- Back on board13.5 → 13.5Oct 23, 12:59 AM
- Pulled13.5Oct 23, 12:58 AM
- First seen13.5Oct 23, 12:58 AM
Map stats
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.58
HS%
50%
K/D
0.75
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.38
HS%
44.4%
K/D
0.56
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
8
KPR
0.4
HS%
75%
K/D
0.44
Vertigo
1 maps
Kills
5
KPR
0.29
HS%
40%
K/D
0.29
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2023-06-14 | Wings Up | 10 Anubis 7-16 | 4 Inferno 3-16 | 14 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2023-06-13 | Lord Rabbit | 6 Ancient 4-16 | 2 Vertigo 1-16 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2023-02-18 | ParisDemons | 4 Inferno 12-16 | 5 Anubis 13-16 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | OT |











































































































































































