KillsRisk
Line
29
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.15
Hit
42.8%
EV+
-25.9%
Edge
-0.8
L10
40%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.76
Hit
42.4%
EV+
-26.6%
Edge
-0.2
L10
40%

Rifler
xfl0ud
FUT vs TYLOO
RISK · UNDER 29
BEST UNDER · PP 29PP29UD28.5
▼ L5 24.4 · L20 28.1Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +2
Hit rates at 29 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
±8.65
Previous meeting · vs TYLOO
1/1 hit · avg 19 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Nuke 13-9 · Ancient 13-6 · W
19
Under 29 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
27.9
10/18 hit at 29
Online · this match
30
1/2 hit at 29
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xfl0ud is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.679 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.15
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
42.8%
EV+
-25.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
29
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.8%
+8.7 →
Learned
51.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 27-31
All players · Kills
44.5%299 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.76) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.5 kills vs line 29.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 55%. Next: vs TYLOO, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 30.5 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.15 vs line 29 → -0.85 (-2.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.07
HS/Map
7.78
K/D
0.92
KPR
0.69
ADR
79.3
KAST
78.9%
HS%
55.2%
Multi-kill
15%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)14.9 · KPR 0.675 · 22r
Map 2 (Ancient)14.9 · KPR 0.72 · 20.7r
Required KPR to clear0.679
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.75
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.02%
Final projected kills29.76
TYLOO gives up (35 series)-7.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29. Model: 53.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~24 kills · 36r75.9%
Normal49.2%
~28 kills · 42r56.6%
Close maps18.6%
~30 kills · 46r45.1%
Overtime12.2%
~34 kills · 52r27.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Dust2
22r
-3% KPR here
M2 Ancient
20.7r
+4% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29 (Under) · avg 30.5 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
29
Nearby lines
| 27 Under | 35.2% | below BE |
| 28 Under | 40% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 42.8% | OFFERED |
| 30 Under | 45.5% | below BE |
| 31 Under | 50.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29
Line movement
first 29.5→29-0.5
- Back on board29.5 → 29Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
59.4%
K/D
0.98
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
14.9
KPR
0.73
HS%
59.7%
K/D
1.03
Nuke
7 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.76
HS%
56.8%
K/D
1.04
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.5
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.68
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.56
HS%
43.9%
K/D
0.72
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.55
HS%
46.8%
K/D
0.78
Cache
1 maps
Kills
25
KPR
1.09
HS%
56%
K/D
1.79
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.57
HS%
50%
K/D
0.84
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 9 Ancient 13-6 | 19 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 6 Dust2 8-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Nuke 13-6 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 16 Dust2 10-13 | 14 Anubis 13-3 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 13 Ancient 10-13 | 18 Dust2 11-13 | 31 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 25 Cache 13-10 | 13 Anubis 13-16 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 22 Ancient 13-11 | 17 Nuke 6-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 24 Dust2 16-13 | 15 Ancient 13-5 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 11 Anubis 13-7 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 27 Nuke 12-16 | 42 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 13 Ancient 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 15 Dust2 6-13 | 18 Ancient 13-3 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-04 | Liquid | 11 Nuke 5-13 | 4 Inferno 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-03 | Gaimin Gladiators | 7 Dust2 13-5 | 10 Inferno 13-6 | 17 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-28 | HEROIC | 26 Inferno 14-16 | 16 Overpass 16-12 | 42 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-05-27 | HEROIC | 11 Nuke 7-13 | 17 Mirage 9-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | HEROIC | 14 Mirage 8-13 | 12 Dust2 13-4 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-11 | HEROIC | 9 Inferno 4-13 | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-10 | FURIA | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 6 Inferno 7-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-09 | Aurora | 20 Nuke 13-8 | 21 Dust2 13-11 | 41 | W | Over ✗ |








































































































































































