KillsRisk
Line
28.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.78
Hit
46.2%
EV+
-20.1%
Edge
-0.7
L10
33%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.67
Hit
56.2%
EV+
-2.7%
Edge
+1.2
L10
50%
Rifler
finW
INOX Division vs Brute
RISK · OVER 14.5
Risk · Edge +1.2 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
3/6
L20
50%
3/6
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±5.06
Previous meeting · vs Brute
No meeting with Brute in his last 6 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
15.3
3/6 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm finW is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 59.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~26 kills at 56.8% HS): 0.545 KPR over ~47 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (72%) or blowout (38%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.67
Raw edge
+1.2
Cons. hit
56.2%
EV+
-2.7%
Rating
4.5/10
Exp. rounds
46.8
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.2%
+1.2 →
Learned
57.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.2 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Big enough sample: 6 recent series (need 8+)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Sharp checks · 2/6
Big enough sample · 6 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 72% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.21) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 6 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.3 headshots vs line 14.5 (3/6 over). KPR 0.65, HS 57%. Next: vs BRUTE, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 15.3 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (72%) — fewer total rounds
- 42% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (6 series)
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 15.67 vs line 14.5 → +1.17 (8.1%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 46.8 rounds · 2-0 72% · OT 14.7%
Performance (last 12 maps)
Kills/Map
13.5
HS/Map
7.67
K/D
0.99
KPR
0.65
ADR
72
KAST
0%
HS%
56.8%
Multi-kill
15.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)8.7 · KPR 0.685 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)7.5 · KPR 0.561 · 24.1r
Required KPR to clear0.545
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.07
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.83%
Final projected kills28.54
× realistic HS% (56.8%)15.67
Brute gives up (32 series)-2.2% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 59.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps38%
~13 HS · 39r35.3%
Normal47.3%
~17 HS · 50r66.2%
Overtime14.7%
~19 HS · 56r79.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 59.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 59% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Nuke
22.7r
+6% KPR here
M2 Ancient
24.1r
-13% KPR here
Total
46.8r
2-0 sweep72%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)14%
Overtime14.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)38%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
6 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 15.3 · hit 3/6 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 62.6% | |
| 13.5 Over | 59% | |
| 14.5 Over | 56.2% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 52.8% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 49.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 02:12 PM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.71
HS%
59.7%
K/D
1.08
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.77
HS%
33.3%
K/D
1.42
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.43
HS%
63.6%
K/D
0.56
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
60.9%
K/D
1.35
Dust2
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.57
HS%
69.2%
K/D
0.76
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-18 | Inner Circle Prospect | 11 Ancient 19-17 | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | Vitality Academy | 3 Ancient 13-2 | 4 Inferno 13-3 | 7 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | VP.Prodigy | 8 Nuke 16-14 | 4 Anubis 13-1 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-09 | INFURITY | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 8 Nuke 13-6 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-03-26 | bankaPEPSI | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 10 Nuke 5-13 | 19 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-03-24 | NAVI Junior | 10 Anubis 13-5 | 10 Nuke 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | BO |









































































































































































