KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.44
Hit
49.1%
EV+
-15.0%
Edge
-2.1
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.62
Hit
49.9%
EV+
-13.5%
Edge
-1.4
L10
70%
#165Ranked 165 of 277 on the board

Rifler
erkaSt
NEXVOID vs Alter Ego
RISK · UNDER 16
BEST UNDER · PP 16PP16UD15.5SL15.5
≈ L5 14.4 · L20 14.8Risk · Edge -1.4 far below ±2.0 +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 16 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
High
±6.51
Previous meeting · vs Alter Ego
No meeting with Alter Ego in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
15.8
7/12 hit at 16
Online
13.3
6/8 hit at 16
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm erkaSt is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 53.1% HS): below 0.673 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
14.62
Raw edge
-1.4
Cons. hit
49.9%
EV+
-13.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
16
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.9%
-8.7 →
Learned
41.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14-18
All players · Headshots
41%234 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 58.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- Under risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.72) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.4 headshots vs line 16.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.64, HS 53%. Next: vs Alter Ego, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 15.4 against a 16.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.62 vs line 16 → -1.38 (-8.6%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.9
HS/Map
7.38
K/D
0.9
KPR
0.64
ADR
76.1
KAST
70%
HS%
53.1%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.6 · KPR 0.601 · 23.9r
Map 2 (Inferno)7.1 · KPR 0.648 · 20.9r
Required KPR to clear0.673
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.91
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.68%
Final projected kills27.72
× realistic HS% (53.1%)14.62
Alter Ego gives up (5 series)-4.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16. Model: 58.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.7%
~12 HS · 38r74.1%
Normal50.8%
~15 HS · 46r58.1%
Close maps10.3%
~16 HS · 48r53.6%
Overtime12.2%
~18 HS · 54r41.8%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Heads upUnder risk — team 57% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
23.9r
-6% KPR here
M2 Inferno
20.9r
+1% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16 (Under) · avg 15.4 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
16
Nearby lines
| 14 Under | 34.6% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 44.3% | below BE |
| 16 Under | 49.9% | OFFERED |
| 17 Under | 53.4% | below BE |
| 18 Under | 56.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16
Line movement
first 16→16no change
- First seen16Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
11 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.65
HS%
49.6%
K/D
1.01
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.59
HS%
52.3%
K/D
0.84
Dust2
9 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.63
HS%
57.4%
K/D
0.87
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.62
HS%
56.2%
K/D
0.82
Cache
3 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.81
HS%
49%
K/D
1.06
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.59
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | Rare Atom | 6 Dust2 10-13 | 9 Ancient 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Morningstar | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 4 Ancient 13-7 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Chinggis Warriors | 4 Inferno 1-13 | 16 Cache 13-10 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | Vitalem Aerem | 1 Dust2 5-13 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-18 | FlyQuest | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 12 Dust2 6-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Off Chops | 19 Dust2 19-17 | 12 Inferno 13-9 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FlyQuest | 10 Ancient 16-14 | 4 Dust2 2-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-15 | Rooster | 7 Anubis 13-9 | 2 Inferno 13-4 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Mindfreak | 5 Cache 13-7 | 9 Inferno 13-5 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Chinggis Warriors | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 4 Ancient 7-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | 5star | 12 Ancient 13-5 | 7 Inferno 12-16 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-08 | The Huns | 9 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 16 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-29 | Lynn Vision | 7 Ancient 11-13 | 9 Nuke 13-11 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | The Huns | 18 Nuke 22-20 | 7 Ancient 13-11 | 25 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Lynn Vision | 8 Ancient 14-16 | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | Legion | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 5 Inferno 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Swing | 4 Cache 7-13 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | bLight blue | 9 Dust2 13-11 | 4 Inferno 13-3 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-03 | Chinggis Warriors | 3 Nuke 11-13 | 2 Ancient 10-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-02 | Lynn Vision | 8 Inferno 8-13 | 3 Dust2 7-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ |








































































































































































