KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.23
Hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.8%
Edge
+0.7
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
18.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.99
Hit
54.4%
EV+
-5.8%
Edge
+0.5
L10
60%
#158Ranked 158 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Spinx
MOUZ vs 9z
RISK · OVER 30.5
BEST OVER · UD 29.5PP30.5UD29.5SL30.5
≈ L5 31.0 · L20 32.3Risk · Edge +0.7 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 30.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±4.58
Previous meeting · vs 9z
1/1 hit · avg 31 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-27 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Cache 13-4 · Nuke 13-7 · W
31
Over 30.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
32.3
12/20 hit at 30.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Spinx is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.768 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (59.5%) or blowout (32.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.23
Raw edge
+0.7
Cons. hit
50.4%
EV+
-12.8%
Rating
2.6/10
Exp. rounds
39.7
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.4%
+8.5 →
Learned
58.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
55.2%286 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 56.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.7 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- Blowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 60% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.33) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.0 kills vs line 30.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 61%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.0 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.23 vs line 30.5 → +0.73 (2.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.7 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.12
HS/Map
9.78
K/D
1.28
KPR
0.7
ADR
80.4
KAST
77.2%
HS%
60.6%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)16.8 · KPR 0.835 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Cache)14.6 · KPR 0.758 · 19.4r
Required KPR to clear0.768
Base kills (Maps 1-2)31.66
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.01%
Final projected kills31.33
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30.5. Model: 56.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.1%
~26 kills · 33r20.5%
Normal37.1%
~32 kills · 41r58.5%
Close maps16.4%
~33 kills · 43r68.1%
Overtime14.4%
~38 kills · 49r88.9%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Mirage
20.3r
+10% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.4r
Total
39.7r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Over) · avg 31.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Over | 61.7% | |
| 29.5 Over | 58.6% | |
| 30.5 Over | 50.4% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Over | 45.2% | below BE |
| 32.5 Over | 40% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→30.5no change
- First seen30.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.79
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.53
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.84
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.4
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.26
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.4%
K/D
1.19
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.65
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 20 Ancient 16-13 | 13 Inferno 12-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 14 Cache 8-13 | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 11 Mirage 5-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 17 Nuke 13-11 | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 22 Dust2 13-5 | 18 Mirage 13-11 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 13 Cache 13-4 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 12 Cache 13-9 | 15 Mirage 13-6 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 16 Cache 8-13 | 21 Mirage 19-16 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 14 Cache 10-13 | 19 Inferno 13-10 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 13 Cache 11-13 | 17 Inferno 13-5 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 8 Dust2 8-13 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 22 Mirage 13-7 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 19 Ancient 13-4 | 15 Mirage 13-5 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 20 Cache 13-4 | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 20 Dust2 13-16 | 12 Ancient 5-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 20 Mirage 13-11 | 24 Ancient 19-22 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 18 Dust2 13-4 | 16 Inferno 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 26 Nuke 16-12 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 23 Dust2 13-8 | 20 Mirage 13-4 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | BO |








































































































































































