KillsLean
Line
24.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
22.17
Hit
47.4%
EV+
-18.0%
Edge
-2.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsLean
Line
13
Pick
UNDER
Projection
11.49
Hit
47.6%
EV+
-17.5%
Edge
-1.5
L10
60%

Rifler · IGL
FalleN
FURIA vs DENDELE
LEAN · UNDER 13
BEST UNDER · PP 13PP13UD12.5
▲ L5 13.4 · L20 10.8LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 13 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±4.85
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
10.8
14/20 hit at 13
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm FalleN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 13
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 81.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 12 HS or fewer (under ~25 kills at 51.1% HS): below 0.62 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
11.49
Raw edge
-1.5
Cons. hit
47.6%
EV+
-17.5%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
13
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
47.6%
+8.7 →
Learned
56.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 11-15
All players · Headshots
39.6%169 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 62.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 82% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (10.67) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 11.8 headshots vs line 12.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.51, HS 51%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 11.8 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 11.49 vs line 13 → -1.51 (-11.6%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
10.53
HS/Map
5.38
K/D
0.75
KPR
0.51
ADR
59.8
KAST
71%
HS%
51.1%
Multi-kill
12.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)5.7 · KPR 0.551 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Cache)5 · KPR 0.484 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.62
Base kills (Maps 1-2)21.2
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.54%
Final projected kills20.88
× realistic HS% (51.1%)11.49
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+6% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 13. Model: 62.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.7%
~10 HS · 34r76.8%
Normal37.5%
~12 HS · 43r58.5%
Close maps20.8%
~12 HS · 44r55.5%
Overtime10%
~14 HS · 50r41.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 82% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
-1% KPR here
M2 Cache
20.6r
-13% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 13 (Under) · avg 11.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
13
Nearby lines
| 11 Under | 35.9% | below BE |
| 12 Under | 40.8% | below BE |
| 13 Under | 47.6% | OFFERED |
| 14 Under | 52.1% | below BE |
| 15 Under | 56% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 13
Line movement
first 12.5→13+0.5
- Back on board13 → 13Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled13Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board12.5 → 13Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled12.5Oct 24, 04:10 PM
- First seen12.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
52.7%
K/D
0.78
Cache
7 maps
Kills
9.4
KPR
0.42
HS%
47%
K/D
0.62
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.6
HS%
45.3%
K/D
0.99
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.37
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.53
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.56
HS%
47.5%
K/D
0.98
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
9
KPR
0.47
HS%
62.2%
K/D
0.73
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.48
HS%
60%
K/D
0.71
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 11 Ancient 16-19 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 9 Cache 10-13 | 7 Inferno 13-5 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 4 Ancient 13-10 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 3 Nuke 11-13 | 2 Inferno 6-13 | 5 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 9 Nuke 13-7 | 7 Inferno 13-3 | 16 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 7 Dust2 13-8 | 3 Mirage 9-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 4 Ancient 7-13 | 8 Mirage 13-5 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 1 Cache 4-13 | 3 Mirage 7-13 | 4 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 5 Mirage 13-5 | 4 Cache 16-14 | 9 | W | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 3 Cache 5-13 | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 6 Mirage 13-8 | 5 Nuke 13-11 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 6 Cache 13-8 | 8 Mirage 16-19 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 8 Mirage 8-13 | 3 Dust2 5-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 2 Inferno 11-13 | 4 Nuke 13-6 | 6 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 4 Ancient 14-16 | 3 Dust2 3-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 5 Mirage 7-13 | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 9 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 2 Ancient 13-2 | 6 Inferno 13-11 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 6 Cache 11-13 | 7 Mirage 13-10 | 13 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | Vitality | 7 Nuke 13-6 | 2 Cache 11-13 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ |






































































































































































