KillsLean
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.24
Hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.1%
Edge
-2.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
8.71
Hit
63.5%
EV+
+10.0%
Edge
-1.8
L10
70%

AWPer
meyern
9z vs Vitality
LEAN · UNDER 25.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP25.5UD25.5
▼ L5 23.8 · L20 26.1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 25.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±5.82
Previous meeting · vs Vitality
1/1 hit · avg 18 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-29 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Dust2 2-13 · Nuke 6-13 · L
18
Under 25.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
26.1
11/20 hit at 25.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm meyern is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 15.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.63 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.24
Raw edge
-2.3
Cons. hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.1%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
40.5
Line
25.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
57.1%
-8.7 →
Learned
48.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
43%207 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 65.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (23) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.5 kills vs line 22.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.56, HS 36%. Next: vs Vitality, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 22.5 against a 22.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (66%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 23.24 vs line 25.5 → -2.26 (-8.9%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 40.5 rounds · 2-0 66.5% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.05
HS/Map
4.72
K/D
1.03
KPR
0.56
ADR
57.2
KAST
75.6%
HS%
36.2%
Multi-kill
11.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)10.2 · KPR 0.534 · 19.4r
Map 2 (Mirage)12.8 · KPR 0.616 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.63
Base kills (Maps 1-2)23.35
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.48%
Final projected kills23
Vitality gives up (100 series)-10.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25.5. Model: 65.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.6%
~20 kills · 34r89.8%
Normal44.9%
~24 kills · 42r61.4%
Close maps10.3%
~25 kills · 43r56.3%
Overtime12.2%
~28 kills · 49r31.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 01:30 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 15.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 16% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Nuke
19.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Mirage
21.1r
+17% KPR here
Total
40.5r
2-0 sweep66.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Under) · avg 22.5 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Under | 47.5% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 51.5% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 57.1% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Under | 59.9% | |
| 27.5 Under | 63% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 22.5→25.5+3
- Back on board22.5 → 25.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled22.5Oct 24, 01:55 PM
- First seen22.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Nuke
12 maps
Kills
11.5
KPR
0.57
HS%
42.8%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
15.3
KPR
0.69
HS%
34.1%
K/D
1.35
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.6
HS%
25.8%
K/D
1
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.61
HS%
37.3%
K/D
1
Cache
4 maps
Kills
10.5
KPR
0.55
HS%
47.6%
K/D
0.98
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.56
HS%
28.1%
K/D
0.97
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-16 | Aurora | 14 Cache 11-13 | 11 Inferno 4-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Falcons | 15 Nuke 9-13 | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | Aurora | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 6 Nuke 13-1 | 20 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | FURIA | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 9 Inferno 3-13 | 17 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | BetBoom | 13 Dust2 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Natus Vincere | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 9 Cache 6-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | TYLOO | 12 Nuke 13-10 | 18 Mirage 13-2 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Aurora | 6 Dust2 3-13 | 9 Mirage 11-13 | 15 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | G2 | 21 Dust2 13-11 | 7 Ancient 8-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | MIBR | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 8 Nuke 7-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | 5star | 12 Cache 13-3 | 13 Nuke 13-4 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-29 | Vitality | 5 Dust2 2-13 | 13 Nuke 6-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | MOUZ | 7 Cache 4-13 | 11 Nuke 7-13 | 18 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-16 | magic | 25 Ancient 17-19 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 40 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | FURIA | 6 Dust2 6-13 | 25 Mirage 16-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-12 | PARIVISION | 7 Mirage 13-9 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | Alliance | 17 Nuke 13-10 | 33 Inferno 17-19 | 50 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-09 | TYLOO | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 15 Mirage 7-13 | 25 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-07-05 | MIBR | 19 Nuke 13-10 | 25 Mirage 16-13 | 44 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-04 | Alliance | 23 Dust2 14-16 | 11 Inferno 7-13 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | OT |







































































































































































