KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.7
Hit
42.3%
EV+
-26.7%
Edge
-1.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
10
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.5
Hit
39.7%
EV+
-31.3%
Edge
-0.5
L10
40%
#268Ranked 268 of 277 on the board

AWPer
torzsi
MOUZ vs 9z
RISK · UNDER 10
BEST UNDER · PP 10PP10UD9.5SL9.5
▲ L5 10.6 · L20 10.1Risk · Edge -0.5 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 10 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
40%
8/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±3.52
Previous meeting · vs 9z
0/1 hit · avg 12 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-27 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Cache 13-4 · Nuke 13-7 · W
12
Over 10 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
10.1
8/20 hit at 10
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm torzsi is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 9 HS or fewer (under ~30 kills at 32.8% HS): below 0.768 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.5
Raw edge
-0.5
Cons. hit
39.7%
EV+
-31.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
39.7
Line
10
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
39.7%
-2.9 →
Learned
36.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 8-12
All players · Headshots
45.6%79 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 55.6% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 40.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 40.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (9.03) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 9.8 headshots vs line 10.0 (4/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 33%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 9.8 against a 10.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 9.5 vs line 10 → -0.5 (-5.0%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.7 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.38
HS/Map
5.05
K/D
1.25
KPR
0.69
ADR
68.6
KAST
79%
HS%
32.8%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)4.6 · KPR 0.692 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Cache)4.5 · KPR 0.71 · 19.4r
Required KPR to clear0.768
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.82
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.01%
Final projected kills27.54
× realistic HS% (32.8%)9.5
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10. Model: 55.6% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.1%
~8 HS · 33r71.1%
Normal37.1%
~10 HS · 41r50.1%
Close maps16.4%
~10 HS · 43r44.7%
Overtime14.4%
~12 HS · 49r29.6%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.3r
-8% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.4r
-5% KPR here
Total
39.7r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10 (Under) · avg 9.8 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
10
Nearby lines
| 8 Under | 24.4% | below BE |
| 9 Under | 30.9% | below BE |
| 10 Under | 39.7% | OFFERED |
| 11 Under | 50.2% | below BE |
| 12 Under | 55.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10
Line movement
first 10→10no change
- First seen10Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
13.7
KPR
0.63
HS%
27%
K/D
1.13
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.79
HS%
30.3%
K/D
1.61
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.64
HS%
34.4%
K/D
1.19
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.66
HS%
36%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
38.1%
K/D
1.33
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
34.3%
K/D
1.2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 10 Ancient 16-13 | 6 Inferno 12-16 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 2 Cache 8-13 | 5 Inferno 7-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 4 Mirage 5-13 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 7 Nuke 13-11 | 5 Inferno 13-6 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 4 Dust2 13-5 | 1 Mirage 13-11 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 8 Cache 13-4 | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 6 Cache 13-9 | 4 Mirage 13-6 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 1 Cache 8-13 | 3 Mirage 19-16 | 4 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 5 Cache 10-13 | 4 Inferno 13-10 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 4 Cache 11-13 | 6 Inferno 13-5 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 9 Dust2 8-13 | 5 Mirage 13-11 | 14 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 3 Dust2 13-11 | 3 Mirage 13-7 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 5 Ancient 13-6 | 10 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 3 Ancient 13-4 | 2 Mirage 13-5 | 5 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 6 Cache 13-4 | 6 Nuke 13-7 | 12 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 3 Dust2 13-16 | 5 Ancient 5-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 6 Mirage 13-11 | 14 Ancient 19-22 | 20 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 2 Dust2 13-4 | 5 Inferno 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 5 Nuke 16-12 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 6 Dust2 13-8 | 5 Mirage 13-4 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | BO |








































































































































































