KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30
Pick
UNDER
Projection
27.9
Hit
53.3%
EV+
-7.7%
Edge
-2.1
L10
70%
HeadshotsLean
Line
16
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.48
Hit
51.5%
EV+
-10.8%
Edge
-1.5
L10
60%

Rifler
gbb
Galorys vs paiN
RISK · UNDER 30
▼ L5 23.0 · L20 31.1Risk · Edge -2.1 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 30 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.18
Previous meeting · vs paiN
1/1 hit · avg 29 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 9-13 · Dust2 5-13 · L
29
Under 30 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.8
5/6 hit at 30
Online
33.9
6/14 hit at 30
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm gbb is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.661 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
27.9
Raw edge
-2.1
Cons. hit
53.3%
EV+
-7.7%
Rating
4.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
30
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.3%
-8.7 →
Learned
44.6%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28-32
All players · Kills
44.1%270 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.99) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 27.3 kills vs line 30.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.65, HS 54%. Next: vs paiN, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 27.3 against a 30.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 27.9 vs line 30 → -2.1 (-7.0%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 70% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.57
HS/Map
8.38
K/D
1.11
KPR
0.65
ADR
75.7
KAST
75.2%
HS%
53.8%
Multi-kill
14.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)18.1 · KPR 0.802 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Inferno)11.9 · KPR 0.526 · 22.7r
Required KPR to clear0.661
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.15
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.51%
Final projected kills29.99
paiN gives up (81 series)-3.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30. Model: 61.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.7%
~23 kills · 38r84.4%
Normal50.6%
~28 kills · 46r60.1%
Close maps16.7%
~30 kills · 49r50%
Overtime10%
~34 kills · 55r29.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 06:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 41% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Ancient
22.7r
+24% KPR here
M2 Inferno
22.7r
-19% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30 (Under) · avg 27.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
30
Nearby lines
| 28 Under | 46.8% | below BE |
| 29 Under | 50.1% | below BE |
| 30 Under | 53.3% | OFFERED |
| 31 Under | 56.2% | below BE |
| 32 Under | 58.6% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30
Line movement
first 30→offno change
- Pulled30Oct 24, 06:00 PM
- Back on board30 → 30Oct 24, 05:12 AM
- Pulled30Oct 24, 05:11 AM
- First seen30Oct 24, 05:11 AM
Map stats
Ancient
16 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.83
HS%
52.3%
K/D
1.37
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.49
HS%
57.4%
K/D
0.69
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
12.4
KPR
0.62
HS%
51.6%
K/D
1.02
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.81
HS%
53.2%
K/D
1.28
Cache
3 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.74
HS%
53.3%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.72
HS%
61.8%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BESTIA | 16 Ancient 9-13 | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 10 Anubis 13-9 | 5 Inferno 9-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 9 Inferno 6-13 | 17 Ancient 13-6 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 6 Anubis 8-13 | 15 Inferno 16-14 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | LP | 8 Inferno 5-13 | 19 Ancient 13-3 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | ex-Keyd Stars | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 29 Ancient 16-14 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Bounty Hunters | 17 Cache 13-6 | 16 Ancient 9-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Yawara | 8 Anubis 13-4 | 14 Ancient 13-2 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | MEIA NOITE | 10 Dust2 8-13 | 17 Ancient 13-6 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Turma do Pagode | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 18 Nuke 13-11 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Grêmio | 13 Inferno 11-13 | 40 Ancient 25-28 | 53 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | Turma do Pagode | 21 Anubis 13-4 | 16 Nuke 10-13 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Procyon | 15 Inferno 13-4 | 14 Ancient 13-6 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BESTIA Academy | 18 Dust2 13-6 | 17 Ancient 13-7 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Grêmio | 23 Inferno 19-16 | 19 Ancient 13-9 | 42 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | Turma do Pagode | 17 Anubis 10-13 | 10 Ancient 7-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Procyon | 3 Inferno 6-13 | 19 Ancient 13-9 | 22 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Bounty Hunters | 15 Cache 7-13 | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | paiN | 13 Cache 9-13 | 16 Dust2 5-13 | 29 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | METANOIA Wolves | 20 Dust2 13-5 | 24 Ancient 13-10 | 44 | W | Over ✗ | BO |








































































































































































