KillsLean
Line
32.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
35.91
Hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.2%
Edge
+3.4
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
17.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.7
Hit
59.8%
EV+
+3.6%
Edge
+2.2
L10
50%

Rifler
ckzao
Tropa do KinGui vs MEIA NOITE
LEAN · OVER 32.5
▲ L5 37.2 · L20 34.0
Hit rates at 32.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.42
Previous meeting · vs MEIA NOITE
No meeting with MEIA NOITE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
28
0/3 hit at 32.5
Online · this match
35.1
9/17 hit at 32.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm ckzao is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 33
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 65.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 33+ kills: 0.722 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (47%) or blowout (22.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
35.91
Raw edge
+3.4
Cons. hit
58.5%
EV+
+1.2%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
32.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
58.5%
-8.7 →
Learned
49.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 30.5-34.5
All players · Kills
57.2%138 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 67.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 47% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (35.36) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.6 kills vs line 32.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.79, HS 55%. Next: vs MEIA NOITE, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 33.6 against a 32.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
SMALL EDGE ONLY
Value
THIN
- • Model 35.91 vs line 32.5 → +3.41 (10.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 40% over this line
- • Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 47% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17
HS/Map
9.38
K/D
1.07
KPR
0.79
ADR
89
KAST
76.3%
HS%
55.1%
Multi-kill
21.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)18.2 · KPR 0.791 · 23.1r
Map 2 (Dust2)17.1 · KPR 0.785 · 21.9r
Required KPR to clear0.722
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.46
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.29%
Final projected kills35.36
MEIA NOITE gives up (46 series)-1.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 32.5. Model: 67.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.3%
~30 kills · 38r33.4%
Normal42.7%
~36 kills · 45r68.5%
Close maps25%
~38 kills · 48r81.4%
Overtime10%
~43 kills · 54r94.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 65.0%
Close match (45–65%) → longer maps: +1 round per map
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 65% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Ancient
23.1r
+1% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21.9r
Total
45r
2-0 sweep47%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 32.5 (Over) · avg 33.6 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
32.5
Nearby lines
| 30.5 Over | 63.9% | |
| 31.5 Over | 62.8% | |
| 32.5 Over | 58.5% | OFFERED |
| 33.5 Over | 56% | below BE |
| 34.5 Over | 53% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 33
Line movement
first 32.5→offno change
- Pulled32.5Oct 24, 04:12 PM
- Back on board32.5 → 32.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled32.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen32.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Ancient
13 maps
Kills
17.6
KPR
0.79
HS%
58.1%
K/D
1.13
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.79
HS%
50.3%
K/D
0.98
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
18.7
KPR
0.77
HS%
58%
K/D
1.13
Mirage
6 maps
Kills
18.3
KPR
0.92
HS%
61.8%
K/D
1.25
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.58
HS%
38.2%
K/D
0.83
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.57
HS%
37.5%
K/D
0.7
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-13 | Galorys | 18 Dust2 6-13 | 14 Ancient 14-16 | 32 | L | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | LP | 14 Dust2 5-13 | 22 Inferno 11-13 | 36 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Yawara | 14 Anubis 7-13 | 15 Dust2 13-6 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Isurus | 26 Inferno 13-11 | 19 Ancient 13-9 | 45 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | QUINTESSÊNCIA | 26 Mirage 13-7 | 18 Ancient 13-5 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Procyon | 17 Ancient 11-13 | 25 Dust2 13-7 | 42 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Galorys | 14 Dust2 8-13 | 18 Ancient 11-13 | 32 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | ALKA | 8 Dust2 6-13 | 19 Ancient 9-13 | 27 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Turma do Pagode | 21 Ancient 13-11 | 3 Anubis 7-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | METANOIA Wolves | 8 Dust2 8-13 | 17 Mirage 13-5 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Bounty Hunters | 14 Ancient 5-13 | 14 Mirage 7-13 | 28 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Grêmio | 17 Inferno 13-11 | 20 Dust2 13-11 | 37 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | Procyon | 16 Ancient 11-13 | 26 Inferno 14-16 | 42 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-27 | Isurus | 19 Ancient 13-2 | 9 Inferno 10-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | Fluxo | 13 Mirage 4-13 | 16 Nuke 12-16 | 29 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-25 | Yawara | 17 Dust2 11-13 | 15 Ancient 13-7 | 32 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-16 | Imperial | 31 Mirage 12-16 | 12 Inferno 7-13 | 43 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-15 | Galorys | 26 Dust2 13-7 | 15 Ancient 11-13 | 41 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Yawara | 24 Ancient 13-11 | 14 Dust2 10-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-10 | paiN Academy | 17 Anubis 13-6 | 9 Mirage 3-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |









































































































































































