KillsBetter playTake
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
35.97
Hit
66.2%
EV+
+14.7%
Edge
+5.5
L10
80%
HeadshotsLean
Line
14
Pick
OVER
Projection
15.84
Hit
61.6%
EV+
+6.7%
Edge
+1.8
L10
60%

AWPer
rendysky
ex-6666 vs FOKUS
LEAN · OVER 14
≈ L5 15.6 · L20 16.1
Hit rates at 14 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Low
±4.1
Previous meeting · vs FOKUS
0/1 hit · avg 11 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · NODWIN Clutch Series 13
Ancient 3-13 · Nuke 13-16 · L
11
Under 14 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
16.1
12/20 hit at 14
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm rendysky is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~33 kills at 45.1% HS): 0.69 KPR over ~45 rounds. His Kills line is 30.5: backing Kills Over needs ~2 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (22.2%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
15.84
Raw edge
+1.8
Cons. hit
61.6%
EV+
+6.7%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45
Line
14
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
61.6%
+7.9 →
Learned
69.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12-16
All players · Headshots
60.6%216 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 67.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.8 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (15.94) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.7 headshots vs line 14.0 (6/10 over). KPR 0.83, HS 45%. Next: vs FOKUS, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 16.7 against a 14.0 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 15.84 vs line 14 → +1.84 (13.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.77
HS/Map
8.03
K/D
1.32
KPR
0.83
ADR
82.8
KAST
78.6%
HS%
45.1%
Multi-kill
20%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)7.3 · KPR 0.768 · 21r
Map 2 (Nuke)8.7 · KPR 0.8 · 24r
Required KPR to clear0.69
Base kills (Maps 1-2)35.33
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.06%
Final projected kills35.35
× realistic HS% (45.1%)15.84
FOKUS gives up (48 series)+2.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14. Model: 67.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~13 HS · 38r35.8%
Normal38.6%
~15 HS · 44r57%
Close maps24.8%
~17 HS · 48r70.9%
Overtime14.4%
~19 HS · 54r84.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 08:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Anubis
21r
-7% KPR here
M2 Nuke
24r
-3% KPR here
Total
45r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)39.2%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14 (Over) · avg 16.7 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
14
Nearby lines
| 12 Over | 66.3% | |
| 13 Over | 64.7% | |
| 14 Over | 61.6% | OFFERED |
| 15 Over | 56% | below BE |
| 16 Over | 50.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14
Line movement
first 14→offno change
- Pulled14Oct 24, 08:00 AM
- First seen14Oct 23, 08:32 PM
Map stats
Anubis
9 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.75
HS%
50.7%
K/D
1.21
Nuke
8 maps
Kills
19.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
46.8%
K/D
1.28
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.82
HS%
57.6%
K/D
1.36
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.81
HS%
36%
K/D
1.28
Inferno
5 maps
Kills
22.6
KPR
0.89
HS%
38.9%
K/D
1.49
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
18.8
KPR
0.84
HS%
32%
K/D
1.39
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FOKUS | 3 Ancient 3-13 | 8 Nuke 13-16 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-22 | 6yuBoJlbl | 7 Mirage 11-13 | 11 Nuke 13-10 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-22 | Acend | 13 Dust2 6-13 | 8 Inferno 14-16 | 21 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-22 | Bushido Wildcats | 5 Anubis 13-4 | 10 Inferno 13-9 | 15 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | Saint Sinners | 6 Dust2 13-5 | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-21 | BRUTE | 20 Anubis 8-13 | 4 Mirage 11-13 | 24 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | Lavked | 9 Nuke 13-8 | 11 Dust2 10-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-20 | los kogutos | 3 Anubis 10-13 | 11 Nuke 11-13 | 14 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Fire Flux | 9 Nuke 13-10 | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-18 | Privateer | 6 Ancient 13-5 | 6 Nuke 13-9 | 12 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-17 | G2 Ares | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 11 Dust2 13-2 | 23 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | mellren | 7 Dust2 4-13 | 10 Ancient 13-11 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Enjoy | 5 Anubis 10-13 | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Bushido Wildcats | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 11 Anubis 13-5 | 19 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | los kogutos | 9 Nuke 16-14 | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | GenOne | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 4 Inferno 16-12 | 8 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-13 | Black Phoenix | 3 Dust2 4-13 | 10 Anubis 8-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-12 | megoshort | 6 Mirage 13-6 | 7 Anubis 16-13 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | benched gods | 5 Anubis 3-13 | 13 Dust2 13-9 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | Bebop | 5 Anubis 13-6 | 11 Nuke 16-12 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | OT |








































































































































































