KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
29.54
Hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.7%
Edge
+0.0
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
19.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
20.02
Hit
55.6%
EV+
-3.7%
Edge
+0.5
L10
70%

Rifler
xelex
MOUZ vs 9z
RISK · OVER 29.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP29.5UD29.5SL29.5
≈ L5 30.2 · L20 29.9Risk · Edge +0.0 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.03
Previous meeting · vs 9z
1/1 hit · avg 31 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-08-27 · BLAST Open Fall 2026
Cache 13-4 · Nuke 13-7 · W
31
Over 29.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.9
9/20 hit at 29.5
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm xelex is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 75.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.743 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (59.5%) or blowout (32.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
29.54
Raw edge
+0.0
Cons. hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.7%
Rating
1.7/10
Exp. rounds
39.7
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.7%
+8.7 →
Learned
57.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
56%332 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 50.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.0 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
- Blowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 60% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.25) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.5 kills vs line 29.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 67%. Next: vs 9z, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 30.5 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 29.54 vs line 29.5 → +0.04 (0.1%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 39.7 rounds · 2-0 59.5% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.93
HS/Map
10
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.69
ADR
74.7
KAST
72.7%
HS%
67%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)16.2 · KPR 0.805 · 20.3r
Map 2 (Cache)13.1 · KPR 0.681 · 19.4r
Required KPR to clear0.743
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.55
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.01%
Final projected kills29.25
9z gives up (77 series)-2.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 50.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps32.1%
~25 kills · 33r19.1%
Normal37.1%
~30 kills · 41r53%
Close maps16.4%
~32 kills · 43r62.1%
Overtime14.4%
~36 kills · 49r84.2%
Match context
Oct 25, 02:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 75.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upBlowout win risk — team 76% to win. A 13-3 stomp means fewer rounds to farm kills; still playable.
M1 Mirage
20.3r
+8% KPR here
M2 Cache
19.4r
-8% KPR here
Total
39.7r
2-0 sweep59.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)32.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 30.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 57% | below BE |
| 28.5 Over | 52.1% | below BE |
| 29.5 Over | 48.7% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 45.3% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 41.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29.5→29.5no change
- First seen29.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.76
HS%
65.9%
K/D
1.18
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.75
HS%
67%
K/D
1.26
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
67%
K/D
0.99
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.61
HS%
71.2%
K/D
0.9
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.58
HS%
63.9%
K/D
0.8
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
68.7%
K/D
1.12
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 22 Ancient 16-13 | 12 Inferno 12-16 | 34 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 12 Cache 8-13 | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 22 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 18 Nuke 13-11 | 14 Inferno 13-6 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 18 Dust2 13-5 | 22 Mirage 13-11 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 9 Cache 13-4 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 22 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 18 Cache 13-9 | 8 Mirage 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 8 Cache 8-13 | 34 Mirage 19-16 | 42 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 10 Cache 10-13 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 20 Cache 11-13 | 16 Inferno 13-5 | 36 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 22 Mirage 13-11 | 29 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 23 Dust2 13-11 | 16 Mirage 13-7 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 15 Nuke 6-13 | 16 Ancient 13-6 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 14 Ancient 13-4 | 14 Mirage 13-5 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 11 Cache 13-4 | 20 Nuke 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 25 Dust2 13-16 | 9 Ancient 5-13 | 34 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 11 Mirage 13-11 | 13 Ancient 19-22 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 14 Dust2 13-4 | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 14 Nuke 16-12 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-4 | 29 | W | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































