KillsBetter playRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.88
Hit
52.7%
EV+
-8.8%
Edge
-1.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.38
Hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.6%
Edge
-0.1
L10
50%

Rifler
Extinct
The Last Resort vs G2 Ares
RISK · UNDER 25.5
▼ L5 23.4 · L20 26.1Risk · Edge -1.6 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 25.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
33%
1/3
Volatility
Low
±5.57
Previous meeting · vs G2 Ares
1/3 hit · avg 32.3 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-14 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 13-10 · Inferno 8-13 · Split
35
Over 25.5 ✗
2026-09-25 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 11-13 · Cache 8-13 · L
21
Under 25.5 ✓
2026-09-04 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 8
Inferno 13-9 · Cache 19-17 · W
41
Over 25.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
24.5
1/2 hit at 25.5
Online
26.3
8/18 hit at 25.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Extinct is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 25.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 25 kills or fewer: below 0.616 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (16.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
23.88
Raw edge
-1.6
Cons. hit
52.7%
EV+
-8.8%
Rating
4.6/10
Exp. rounds
41.4
Line
25.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
52.7%
-8.7 →
Learned
44%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 23.5-27.5
All players · Kills
43%207 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 17% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (24.08) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 24.3 kills vs line 25.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 53%. Next: vs G2 Ares, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 24.3 against a 25.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 23.88 vs line 25.5 → -1.62 (-6.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.4 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.07
HS/Map
6.9
K/D
0.81
KPR
0.57
ADR
67
KAST
69.6%
HS%
52.8%
Multi-kill
12.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)12.8 · KPR 0.611 · 21r
Map 2 (Anubis)11.3 · KPR 0.556 · 20.4r
Required KPR to clear0.616
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.16
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.34%
Final projected kills24.08
G2 Ares gives up (69 series)+9.5% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 25.5. Model: 61.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.7%
~20 kills · 35r88%
Normal49.8%
~24 kills · 42r62.3%
Close maps5.8%
~26 kills · 44r51%
Overtime16.7%
~29 kills · 50r26.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:00 PMLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 24% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Inferno
21r
+14% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20.4r
+3% KPR here
Total
41.4r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.7%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 25.5 (Under) · avg 24.3 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
25.5
Nearby lines
| 23.5 Under | 44.2% | below BE |
| 24.5 Under | 48.5% | below BE |
| 25.5 Under | 52.7% | OFFERED |
| 26.5 Under | 56.4% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 63% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 25.5
Line movement
first 25.5→offno change
- Pulled25.5Oct 24, 12:12 PM
- First seen25.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.63
HS%
55.4%
K/D
0.92
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.68
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.93
Cache
6 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.55
HS%
50.6%
K/D
0.7
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.56
HS%
59%
K/D
0.78
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
7.6
KPR
0.46
HS%
42.1%
K/D
0.6
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.83
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
31.8%
K/D
0.67
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Aces | 12 Mirage 9-13 | 15 Cache 9-13 | 27 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Sökerorg | 10 Ancient 13-4 | 11 Nuke 13-8 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Spirit Academy | 9 Ancient 7-13 | 5 Anubis 6-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | G2 Ares | 23 Ancient 13-10 | 12 Inferno 8-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Privateer | 10 Ancient 13-8 | 10 Cache 8-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Saint Sinners | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 17 Inferno 13-6 | 27 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Privateer | 14 Ancient 13-11 | 8 Nuke 13-8 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Famalicão | 16 Inferno 10-13 | 11 Ancient 7-13 | 27 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | G2 Ares | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 7 Cache 8-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Nexus | 7 Cache 5-13 | 22 Ancient 16-14 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-19 | Ryvex | 14 Inferno 8-13 | 7 Dust2 13-3 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-11 | SINNERS | 5 Dust2 2-13 | 11 Inferno 6-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 14 Cache 16-14 | 24 Inferno 16-13 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | MOUZ NXT | 20 Anubis 13-11 | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 35 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | G2 Ares | 13 Inferno 13-9 | 28 Cache 19-17 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | Leo | 10 Nuke 5-13 | 4 Ancient 6-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Privateer | 14 Nuke 16-14 | 14 Dust2 13-9 | 28 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-19 | OG | 13 Nuke 10-13 | 7 Dust2 2-13 | 20 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-18 | Color | 21 Ancient 13-16 | 5 Dust2 2-13 | 26 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-18 | Strael Bora | 14 Anubis 13-8 | 27 Nuke 19-17 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OT |








































































































































































