KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
26.47
Hit
56.2%
EV+
-2.6%
Edge
+1.0
L10
57%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.97
Hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.1%
Edge
+0.5
L10
57%

Rifler
Queenix
STATE vs overTIME
RISK · OVER 14.5
Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±2.0STAND-IN? · Altekz
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
57%
4/7
L20
57%
4/7
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±2.51
Previous meeting · vs overTIME
1/1 hit · avg 17 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown
Anubis 13-3 · Nuke 13-1 · W
17
Over 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
17
1/1 hit at 14.5
Online · this match
14.7
3/6 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Queenix is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~26 kills at 56.8% HS): 0.588 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (26.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.97
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
56.5%
EV+
-2.1%
Rating
5.3/10
Exp. rounds
43.4
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
56.5%
-8.7 →
Learned
47.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 57.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.5 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Big enough sample: 7 recent series (need 8+)
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 57.1% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 7 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 57.1% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 57.1% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.61) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 7 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.0 headshots vs line 14.5 (4/7 over). KPR 0.61, HS 57%. Next: vs overTIME, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 15.0 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 29% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Small sample (7 series)
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.97 vs line 14.5 → +0.47 (3.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 57.1% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 43.4 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 7.9%
Performance (last 14 maps)
Kills/Map
13.21
HS/Map
7.5
K/D
0.94
KPR
0.61
ADR
64.6
KAST
78%
HS%
56.8%
Multi-kill
14.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)8.1 · KPR 0.605 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Nuke)6.5 · KPR 0.59 · 19.6r
Required KPR to clear0.588
Base kills (Maps 1-2)25.96
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.91%
Final projected kills25.73
× realistic HS% (56.8%)14.97
overTIME gives up (10 series)+5.1% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 57.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.3%
~13 HS · 37r28.6%
Normal33.7%
~15 HS · 44r54.3%
Close maps32.1%
~16 HS · 46r62.9%
Overtime7.9%
~18 HS · 52r79.1%
Match context
Oct 24, 09:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Cache
23.8r
-2% KPR here
M2 Nuke
19.6r
-4% KPR here
Total
43.4r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)40%
Overtime7.9%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.3%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Nuke
Recent Maps 1-2 form
7 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 15.0 · hit 4/7 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 65.1% | |
| 13.5 Over | 62.9% | |
| 14.5 Over | 56.5% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 49.2% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 39.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 09:12 AM
- First seen14.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Cache
4 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
57.4%
K/D
0.95
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.57
HS%
83.3%
K/D
0.91
Inferno
2 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.56
HS%
64%
K/D
0.81
Anubis
2 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.97
HS%
27.3%
K/D
1.94
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.58
HS%
57.7%
K/D
0.74
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.45
HS%
50%
K/D
0.59
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | overTIME | 4 Anubis 13-3 | 13 Nuke 13-1 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | HOTU | 6 Nuke 3-13 | 5 Anubis 13-5 | 11 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | G2 Ares | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 13 Cache 15-19 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Famalicão | 10 Inferno 10-13 | 7 Cache 13-11 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | Illyrians | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 6 Cache 13-11 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-23 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 6 Inferno 9-13 | 6 Nuke 13-10 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | KAMUI | 5 Mirage 8-13 | 9 Cache 13-7 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ |








































































































































































