KillsBetter playRisk
Line
33
Pick
UNDER
Projection
32.39
Hit
43.3%
EV+
-25.0%
Edge
-0.6
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
20.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
21.54
Hit
32.8%
EV+
-43.2%
Edge
+1.0
L10
40%

Rifler
Mail09
Metizport vs BAKS
RISK · UNDER 33
PP33
≈ L5 32.6 · L20 32.4Risk · Edge -0.6 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 33 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
50%
9/18
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.46
Previous meeting · vs BAKS
No meeting with BAKS in his last 18 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
30
3/4 hit at 33
Online · this match
33.1
6/14 hit at 33
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm MaiL09 is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 33
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 67.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 32 kills or fewer: below 0.727 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (20.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
32.39
Raw edge
-0.6
Cons. hit
43.3%
EV+
-25.0%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
33
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
43.3%
-4.1 →
Learned
39.2%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 31-35
All players · Kills
40%85 picks
This player
50%2 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.6 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 50.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 67% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 18 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 50.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 21% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (32.3) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 32.8 kills vs line 33.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 67%. Next: vs BAKS, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 32.8 against a 33.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (74%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 32.39 vs line 33 → -0.61 (-1.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 73.5% · OT 20.7%
Performance (last 36 maps)
Kills/Map
16.19
HS/Map
10.78
K/D
1.12
KPR
0.73
ADR
76.5
KAST
74.7%
HS%
66.6%
Multi-kill
16.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Nuke)16.1 · KPR 0.674 · 23.8r
Map 2 (Inferno)16.2 · KPR 0.744 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.727
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.11
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.57%
Final projected kills32.3
BAKS gives up (31 series)-5.7% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 33. Model: 54.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps14.9%
~27 kills · 38r84%
Normal56%
~31 kills · 44r61.5%
Close maps8.4%
~35 kills · 49r37.1%
Overtime20.7%
~39 kills · 55r15.7%
Match context
Oct 25, 12:00 PMOnlineNODWIN Clutch Series 13
Win chance source: Polymarket 67.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 67% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Nuke
23.8r
-8% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.6r
+2% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep73.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)29.1%
Overtime20.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)14.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Nuke / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 33 (Under) · avg 32.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
33
Nearby lines
| 31 Under | 30.8% | below BE |
| 32 Under | 35% | below BE |
| 33 Under | 43.3% | OFFERED |
| 34 Under | 47.5% | below BE |
| 35 Under | 51.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 33
Line movement
first 33.5→33-0.5
- Moved down33.5 → 33Oct 24, 09:10 PM
- First seen33.5Oct 24, 08:30 PM
Map stats
Nuke
14 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.66
HS%
66.7%
K/D
1.01
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
16.3
KPR
0.75
HS%
64%
K/D
1.28
Cache
5 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.54
HS%
54%
K/D
0.89
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
17.8
KPR
0.73
HS%
68.5%
K/D
1.2
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
19
KPR
0.89
HS%
71.9%
K/D
1.78
Ancient
2 maps
Kills
17.5
KPR
0.76
HS%
82.9%
K/D
1.06
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | Sangal | 14 Cache 16-14 | 28 Nuke 17-19 | 42 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-21 | GenOne | 16 Cache 13-3 | 11 Nuke 13-2 | 27 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-RUSTEC | 17 Anubis 13-7 | 22 Nuke 13-9 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-07 | K27 | 16 Nuke 13-11 | 14 Mirage 8-13 | 30 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Inner Circle Academy | 15 Anubis 13-9 | 10 Nuke 13-9 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | aimclub | 19 Mirage 13-6 | 13 Inferno 7-13 | 32 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | HAVU | 11 Nuke 8-13 | 16 Inferno 13-6 | 27 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Optibet | 22 Ancient 9-13 | 14 Nuke 13-8 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Nemiga | 21 Mirage 14-16 | 11 Nuke 8-13 | 32 | L | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 13 Cache 13-6 | 25 Nuke 14-16 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-11 | Lavked | 12 Inferno 13-11 | 22 Mirage 16-14 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | 9INE | 35 Nuke 25-23 | 13 Ancient 13-11 | 48 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-04 | Sashi | 24 Inferno 16-13 | 15 Cache 16-13 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-02 | Walczaki | 19 Inferno 13-6 | 25 Anubis 13-9 | 44 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-01 | PCIFIC | 11 Inferno 8-13 | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 19 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | ASTRAL | 5 Cache 9-13 | 12 Nuke 13-8 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | PCIFIC | 19 Nuke 13-7 | 19 Inferno 13-7 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Bushido Wildcats | 13 Mirage 9-13 | 3 Nuke 4-13 | 16 | L | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































