KillsRisk
Line
33
Pick
UNDER
Projection
31.23
Hit
42.9%
EV+
-25.7%
Edge
-1.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
17
Pick
UNDER
Projection
15.74
Hit
45.9%
EV+
-20.4%
Edge
-1.3
L10
60%

Rifler
KSCERATO
FURIA vs DENDELE
RISK · UNDER 33
BEST UNDER · PP 33PP33UD32.5
▲ L5 34.4 · L20 32.5Risk · Edge -1.8 far below ±3.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 33 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.67
Previous meeting · vs DENDELE
No meeting with DENDELE in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
32.5
9/20 hit at 33
Online
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KSCERATO is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 33
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 81.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 32 kills or fewer: below 0.805 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
31.23
Raw edge
-1.8
Cons. hit
42.9%
EV+
-25.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41
Line
33
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
42.9%
+5.5 →
Learned
48.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 31-35
All players · Kills
40%85 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -1.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
- Under risk — team 82% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.88) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.1 kills vs line 31.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.72, HS 51%. Next: vs DENDELE, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.1 against a 31.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (64%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.23 vs line 33 → -1.77 (-5.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41 rounds · 2-0 63.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.25
HS/Map
8.22
K/D
1.27
KPR
0.72
ADR
80.3
KAST
77%
HS%
50.6%
Multi-kill
18.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)15.8 · KPR 0.788 · 20.4r
Map 2 (Cache)14 · KPR 0.692 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.805
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.34
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.54%
Final projected kills29.88
DENDELE gives up (26 series)+5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 33. Model: 59.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps31.7%
~26 kills · 34r84.7%
Normal37.5%
~32 kills · 43r52.2%
Close maps20.8%
~33 kills · 44r46.5%
Overtime10%
~38 kills · 50r23.4%
Match context
Oct 24, 04:00 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 81.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 82% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Mirage
20.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Cache
20.6r
-12% KPR here
Total
41r
2-0 sweep63.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)31.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Cache
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 33 (Under) · avg 31.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
33
Nearby lines
| 31 Under | 36.7% | below BE |
| 32 Under | 39.8% | below BE |
| 33 Under | 42.9% | OFFERED |
| 34 Under | 45.9% | below BE |
| 35 Under | 50.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 33
Line movement
first 31.5→33+1.5
- Back on board33 → 33Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled33Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Back on board32 → 33Oct 24, 10:15 PM
- Pulled32Oct 24, 04:10 PM
- Moved up31.5 → 32Oct 24, 07:21 AM
- Back on board31.5 → 31.5Oct 24, 03:10 AM
- Pulled31.5Oct 24, 03:04 AM
- First seen31.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
49.1%
K/D
1.15
Cache
7 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
48.4%
K/D
1.01
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.78
HS%
52.6%
K/D
1.47
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
19.5
KPR
0.81
HS%
49.6%
K/D
1.36
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
52.4%
K/D
1.56
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.84
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.4
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
50%
K/D
1.14
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-18 | BetBoom | 21 Dust2 13-6 | 20 Ancient 16-19 | 41 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | Aurora | 22 Dust2 13-8 | 16 Inferno 13-10 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Legacy | 11 Cache 10-13 | 15 Inferno 13-5 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-14 | BetBoom | 19 Ancient 13-10 | 21 Mirage 13-9 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | MOUZ | 14 Nuke 11-13 | 13 Inferno 6-13 | 27 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | 9z | 14 Nuke 13-7 | 8 Inferno 13-3 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-06 | Aurora | 20 Dust2 13-8 | 19 Mirage 9-13 | 39 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | PARIVISION | 7 Ancient 7-13 | 14 Mirage 13-5 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | MOUZ | 9 Cache 4-13 | 14 Mirage 7-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BetBoom | 9 Mirage 13-5 | 25 Cache 16-14 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 10 Cache 5-13 | 16 Anubis 8-13 | 26 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | MIBR | 15 Mirage 13-8 | 24 Nuke 13-11 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | MOUZ | 18 Cache 13-8 | 30 Mirage 16-19 | 48 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Vitality | 18 Mirage 8-13 | 10 Dust2 5-13 | 28 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | MIBR | 23 Inferno 11-13 | 14 Nuke 13-6 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-11 | G2 | 26 Ancient 14-16 | 7 Dust2 3-13 | 33 | L | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-10 | Legacy | 10 Mirage 7-13 | 26 Ancient 9-13 | 36 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | PARIVISION | 19 Ancient 13-2 | 22 Inferno 13-11 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | GamerLegion | 9 Cache 11-13 | 11 Mirage 13-10 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-04 | Vitality | 18 Nuke 13-6 | 13 Cache 11-13 | 31 | Split | Under ✓ |







































































































































































