KillsBetter playRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
23.88
Hit
52.7%
EV+
-8.8%
Edge
-1.6
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
12.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
12.38
Hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.6%
Edge
-0.1
L10
50%

Rifler
Extinct
The Last Resort vs G2 Ares
RISK · UNDER 12.5
▼ L5 11.6 · L20 13.8Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 12.5 (Under)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
45%
9/20
H2H
33%
1/3
Volatility
Low
±3.39
Previous meeting · vs G2 Ares
1/3 hit · avg 16.3 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-14 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 13-10 · Inferno 8-13 · Split
18
Over 12.5 ✗
2026-09-25 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 11-13 · Cache 8-13 · L
12
Under 12.5 ✓
2026-09-04 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 8
Inferno 13-9 · Cache 19-17 · W
19
Over 12.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
13.5
0/2 hit at 12.5
Online
13.8
9/18 hit at 12.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Extinct is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 12.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 12 HS or fewer (under ~25 kills at 52.8% HS): below 0.572 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (16.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
12.38
Raw edge
-0.1
Cons. hit
47.5%
EV+
-17.6%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.4
Line
12.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.5%
-8.6 →
Learned
38.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 10.5-14.5
All players · Headshots
40.2%189 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.1 below ±2.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 45.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 45.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 17% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (12.72) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 13.1 headshots vs line 12.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 53%. Next: vs G2 Ares, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 13.1 against a 12.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 12.38 vs line 12.5 → -0.12 (-1.0%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 50% under this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.4 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.07
HS/Map
6.9
K/D
0.81
KPR
0.57
ADR
67
KAST
69.6%
HS%
52.8%
Multi-kill
12.5%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)6.8 · KPR 0.611 · 21r
Map 2 (Anubis)6 · KPR 0.556 · 20.4r
Required KPR to clear0.572
Base kills (Maps 1-2)24.16
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.34%
Final projected kills24.08
× realistic HS% (52.8%)12.38
G2 Ares gives up (69 series)+9.9% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 12.5. Model: 51.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps27.7%
~10 HS · 35r74.8%
Normal49.8%
~13 HS · 42r52.2%
Close maps5.8%
~13 HS · 44r43.9%
Overtime16.7%
~15 HS · 50r27%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:00 PMLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Game scriptIdeal Under range — team 24% to win; the lower the %, the fewer rounds he wins and kills he gets.
M1 Inferno
21r
+14% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20.4r
+3% KPR here
Total
41.4r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)27.7%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 12.5 (Under) · avg 13.1 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
12.5
Nearby lines
| 10.5 Under | 26.1% | below BE |
| 11.5 Under | 38.6% | below BE |
| 12.5 Under | 47.5% | OFFERED |
| 13.5 Under | 56.2% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 62.1% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 12.5
Line movement
first 12.5→offno change
- Pulled12.5Oct 24, 12:12 PM
- First seen12.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Ancient
10 maps
Kills
13.9
KPR
0.63
HS%
55.4%
K/D
0.92
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
15.1
KPR
0.68
HS%
53.7%
K/D
0.93
Cache
6 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.55
HS%
50.6%
K/D
0.7
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.56
HS%
59%
K/D
0.78
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
7.6
KPR
0.46
HS%
42.1%
K/D
0.6
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.61
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.83
Mirage
2 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.55
HS%
31.8%
K/D
0.67
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Aces | 3 Mirage 9-13 | 8 Cache 9-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Sökerorg | 5 Ancient 13-4 | 6 Nuke 13-8 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Spirit Academy | 6 Ancient 7-13 | 1 Anubis 6-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-14 | G2 Ares | 11 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Inferno 8-13 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Privateer | 6 Ancient 13-8 | 5 Cache 8-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Saint Sinners | 4 Mirage 5-13 | 11 Inferno 13-6 | 15 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-07 | Privateer | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 6 Nuke 13-8 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-26 | Famalicão | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 6 Ancient 7-13 | 13 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-25 | G2 Ares | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 4 Cache 8-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Nexus | 4 Cache 5-13 | 15 Ancient 16-14 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-19 | Ryvex | 10 Inferno 8-13 | 3 Dust2 13-3 | 13 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-11 | SINNERS | 2 Dust2 2-13 | 9 Inferno 6-13 | 11 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-09 | INOX Division | 5 Cache 16-14 | 9 Inferno 16-13 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-07 | MOUZ NXT | 11 Anubis 13-11 | 11 Ancient 13-6 | 22 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-04 | G2 Ares | 4 Inferno 13-9 | 15 Cache 19-17 | 19 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-03 | Leo | 5 Nuke 5-13 | 1 Ancient 6-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-20 | Privateer | 8 Nuke 16-14 | 6 Dust2 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-19 | OG | 6 Nuke 10-13 | 1 Dust2 2-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-18 | Color | 8 Ancient 13-16 | 4 Dust2 2-13 | 12 | L | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-18 | Strael Bora | 9 Anubis 13-8 | 18 Nuke 19-17 | 27 | W | Over ✗ | OT |









































































































































































