KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
29.82
Hit
41.3%
EV+
-28.5%
Edge
+0.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.09
Hit
47.4%
EV+
-17.9%
Edge
-0.4
L10
60%

Rifler
XANTARES
Aurora vs The MongolZ
RISK · UNDER 16.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP16.5UD16.5
▲ L5 16.2 · L20 15.3Risk · Edge -0.4 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 16.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Medium
±4.73
Previous meeting · vs The MongolZ
1/1 hit · avg 15 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Inferno 16-12 · Nuke 2-13 · Split
15
Under 16.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
15.3
13/20 hit at 16.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm XANTARES is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 16.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 16 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 53% HS): below 0.689 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (12.2%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
16.09
Raw edge
-0.4
Cons. hit
47.4%
EV+
-17.9%
Rating
1.7/10
Exp. rounds
45.2
Line
16.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
47.4%
+8.7 →
Learned
56.1%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 14.5-18.5
All players · Headshots
40.5%247 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 12% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (16.04) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 15.8 headshots vs line 16.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.67, HS 53%. Next: vs The MongolZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 15.8 against a 16.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 16.09 vs line 16.5 → -0.41 (-2.5%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 45.2 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 12.2%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.47
HS/Map
7.67
K/D
0.98
KPR
0.67
ADR
77.7
KAST
70.9%
HS%
53%
Multi-kill
14.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)8.3 · KPR 0.672 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Dust2)7.7 · KPR 0.669 · 21.8r
Required KPR to clear0.689
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.31
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.16%
Final projected kills30.26
× realistic HS% (53%)16.09
The MongolZ gives up (48 series)-5.5% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 16.5. Model: 53.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.2%
~14 HS · 38r77.9%
Normal42.8%
~16 HS · 45r57.6%
Close maps22.8%
~17 HS · 48r45.8%
Overtime12.2%
~19 HS · 54r28.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 07:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Inferno
23.4r
M2 Dust2
21.8r
Total
45.2r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime12.2%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.2%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Inferno / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 16.5 (Under) · avg 15.8 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
16.5
Nearby lines
| 14.5 Under | 35.4% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 42.3% | below BE |
| 16.5 Under | 47.4% | OFFERED |
| 17.5 Under | 52.3% | below BE |
| 18.5 Under | 56.7% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 16.5
Line movement
first 16.5→16.5no change
- Back on board17.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled17.5Oct 24, 07:00 AM
- Moved up16.5 → 17.5Oct 24, 05:09 AM
- Moved down17.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 05:07 AM
- Moved up16.5 → 17.5Oct 24, 05:07 AM
- First seen16.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.67
HS%
53.8%
K/D
1.07
Mirage
8 maps
Kills
15.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
54.4%
K/D
0.98
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
48.7%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
7 maps
Kills
13
KPR
0.66
HS%
53.8%
K/D
0.99
Cache
5 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.8
HS%
50.6%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
7.8
KPR
0.44
HS%
64.5%
K/D
0.53
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | The MongolZ | 13 Inferno 16-12 | 2 Nuke 2-13 | 15 | Split | Under ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-18 | Falcons | 9 Anubis 8-13 | 15 Dust2 19-17 | 24 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | FURIA | 3 Dust2 8-13 | 7 Inferno 10-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-16 | 9z | 6 Cache 13-11 | 6 Inferno 13-4 | 12 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-15 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 8 Cache 13-9 | 12 Dust2 13-7 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-14 | 9z | 10 Inferno 11-13 | 4 Nuke 1-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-11 | Spirit | 12 Mirage 13-9 | 9 Anubis 13-6 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitality | 10 Anubis 13-7 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | 1win | 8 Dust2 13-9 | 6 Anubis 13-8 | 14 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | FURIA | 3 Dust2 8-13 | 6 Mirage 13-9 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | BetBoom | 5 Mirage 13-4 | 7 Nuke 7-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Falcons | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 4 Dust2 10-13 | 8 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | 9z | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 10 Mirage 13-11 | 16 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-20 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 4-13 | 4 Inferno 13-11 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-19 | Vitality | 6 Anubis 13-7 | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 12 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-18 | NRG | 10 Cache 13-7 | 16 Mirage 19-17 | 26 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | Natus Vincere | 7 Nuke 13-8 | 4 Mirage 13-7 | 11 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | G2 | 2 Anubis 13-7 | 12 Inferno 16-19 | 14 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-30 | M80 | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 12 Inferno 13-5 | 18 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | DENDELE | 10 Cache 13-7 | 11 Mirage 16-12 | 21 | W | Over ✗ | OT |







































































































































































