KillsLean
Line
27.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
24.97
Hit
51.6%
EV+
-10.5%
Edge
-2.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playPlayable
Line
16.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
14.23
Hit
60.1%
EV+
+4.1%
Edge
-2.3
L10
80%

Rifler
dziugss
FUT vs Liquid
LEAN · UNDER 27.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP27.5UD27.5SL27.5
▼ L5 22.0 · L20 26.1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 27.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±4.9
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
No meeting with Liquid in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
26.1
11/18 hit at 27.5
Online
26
1/2 hit at 27.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm dziugss is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 27.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 72.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 27 kills or fewer: below 0.682 KPR over ~40 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
24.97
Raw edge
-2.5
Cons. hit
51.6%
EV+
-10.5%
Rating
3.2/10
Exp. rounds
40.3
Line
27.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
51.6%
+2.2 →
Learned
53.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 25.5-29.5
All players · Kills
44.1%331 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 69.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.24) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.3 kills vs line 27.5 (4/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 57%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 25.3 against a 27.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 24.97 vs line 27.5 → -2.53 (-9.2%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 60% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 40.3 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.03
HS/Map
7.45
K/D
0.92
KPR
0.57
ADR
70.3
KAST
75.2%
HS%
57.2%
Multi-kill
10%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)13.2 · KPR 0.689 · 19.3r
Map 2 (Dust2)13.1 · KPR 0.629 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.682
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.5
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.97%
Final projected kills26.24
Liquid gives up (41 series)-5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 27.5. Model: 69.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.5%
~21 kills · 34r91.3%
Normal53%
~26 kills · 41r66%
Close maps14.7%
~27 kills · 43r57.2%
Overtime7.8%
~30 kills · 49r31%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 72.5%
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 72% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Ancient
19.3r
+11% KPR here
M2 Dust2
21r
+1% KPR here
Total
40.3r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.5%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 27.5 (Under) · avg 25.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
27.5
Nearby lines
| 25.5 Under | 42.4% | below BE |
| 26.5 Under | 47.2% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 51.6% | OFFERED |
| 28.5 Under | 55.5% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 61.2% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 27.5
Line movement
first 27.5→27.5no change
- First seen27.5Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.65
HS%
56.8%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.58
HS%
54.2%
K/D
0.84
Anubis
6 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.72
HS%
56%
K/D
1.18
Nuke
6 maps
Kills
11.2
KPR
0.51
HS%
64.2%
K/D
0.77
Overpass
5 maps
Kills
10.2
KPR
0.6
HS%
62.7%
K/D
0.77
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.66
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.95
Cache
1 maps
Kills
15
KPR
0.65
HS%
40%
K/D
1.07
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | TYLOO | 8 Nuke 13-9 | 13 Ancient 13-6 | 21 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Vitality | 9 Anubis 7-13 | 13 Dust2 8-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-30 | Inner Circle | 14 Mirage 13-9 | 11 Nuke 13-6 | 25 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Lynn Vision | 9 Dust2 10-13 | 11 Anubis 13-3 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Legacy | 9 Ancient 10-13 | 13 Dust2 11-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Spirit | 15 Cache 13-10 | 20 Anubis 13-16 | 35 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | FURIA | 14 Ancient 13-11 | 6 Nuke 6-13 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-21 | MOUZ | 19 Dust2 16-13 | 11 Ancient 13-5 | 30 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | magic | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 21 Anubis 13-7 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-14 | MOUZ | 13 Ancient 13-6 | 16 Nuke 12-16 | 29 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-07-26 | 3DMAX | 16 Dust2 11-13 | 19 Ancient 9-13 | 35 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-07-23 | SINNERS | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 17 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-15 | BetBoom | 14 Mirage 7-13 | 16 Dust2 7-13 | 30 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-14 | MOUZ | 16 Ancient 13-11 | 14 Nuke 10-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-06-13 | B8 | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 14 Mirage 13-9 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-06-12 | G2 | 13 Overpass 5-13 | 25 Ancient 13-6 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-06-11 | Vitality | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 9 Overpass 2-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-06-07 | G2 | 15 Anubis 13-11 | 11 Overpass 7-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-13 | B8 | 14 Ancient 7-13 | 10 Overpass 11-13 | 24 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-05-12 | paiN | 12 Nuke 8-13 | 8 Overpass 3-5 | 20 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |








































































































































































