KillsBetter playRisk
Line
28
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.51
Hit
48.3%
EV+
-16.3%
Edge
+0.5
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
9.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
8.38
Hit
32.8%
EV+
-43.2%
Edge
-1.1
L10
40%

AWPer
khaN
Nemiga vs Legacy
RISK · OVER 28
BEST OVER · PP 28PP28UD29.5
▼ L5 28.4 · L20 30.4Risk · Edge +0.5 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 28 (Over)
L5
20%
1/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±6.81
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
29.8
2/4 hit at 28
Online
30.5
9/16 hit at 28
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm khaN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 34.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 29+ kills: 0.656 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.5%) or blowout (26.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.51
Raw edge
+0.5
Cons. hit
48.3%
EV+
-16.3%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
28
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.3%
+8.7 →
Learned
57%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 26-30
All players · Kills
54.4%285 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 53% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.5 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 55% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.56) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.6 kills vs line 29.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 28%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.6 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.51 vs line 28 → +0.51 (1.8%)
- • Form L5 20% · L10 60% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
15.18
HS/Map
4.17
K/D
1.18
KPR
0.69
ADR
68.1
KAST
74.2%
HS%
27.5%
Multi-kill
17.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)13 · KPR 0.681 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)15.5 · KPR 0.662 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.656
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.62
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.22%
Final projected kills28.56
Legacy gives up (79 series)-4.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 28. Model: 53% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.9%
~24 kills · 36r19.5%
Normal50.6%
~29 kills · 43r49.9%
Close maps5.8%
~31 kills · 46r61.6%
Overtime16.7%
~35 kills · 52r82.3%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:55 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 34.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Cache
19.2r
+5% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.5r
+2% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28 (Over) · avg 31.6 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
28
Nearby lines
| 26 Over | 56.8% | below BE |
| 27 Over | 53.7% | below BE |
| 28 Over | 48.3% | OFFERED |
| 29 Over | 42.8% | below BE |
| 30 Over | 37.3% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28
Line movement
first 29.5→28-1.5
- Back on board28.5 → 28Oct 24, 09:08 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 12:46 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Back on board29.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 04:13 AM
- Pulled29.5Oct 24, 04:02 AM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.74
HS%
28.2%
K/D
1.34
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
18.1
KPR
0.71
HS%
21.5%
K/D
1.18
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.58
HS%
31.9%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
16.2
KPR
0.7
HS%
26.8%
K/D
1.11
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.88
HS%
32.9%
K/D
1.46
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.58
HS%
30.6%
K/D
1.04
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 10 Cache 7-13 | 14 Nuke 16-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 15 Anubis 13-5 | 13 Dust2 13-4 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 10 Mirage 6-13 | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 26 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 18 Cache 13-11 | 20 Dust2 16-13 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 14 Cache 13-6 | 12 Ancient 13-8 | 26 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 21 Mirage 16-12 | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 20 Anubis 13-10 | 12 Nuke 13-6 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 18 Dust2 13-6 | 30 Mirage 22-20 | 48 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 15 Cache 13-5 | 15 Dust2 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 18 Cache 13-9 | 17 Dust2 9-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 8 Nuke 13-2 | 13 Ancient 13-10 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 14 Cache 13-6 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 17 Mirage 16-14 | 15 Nuke 13-8 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 16 Cache 13-10 | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 17 Ancient 13-6 | 7 Cache 13-3 | 24 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 24 Anubis 10-13 | 19 Mirage 13-9 | 43 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 3 Ancient 3-13 | 19 Cache 13-4 | 22 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 14 Dust2 16-13 | 14 Anubis 13-6 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 26 Mirage 16-14 | 12 Ancient 13-3 | 38 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-05 | Nemesis | 8 Mirage 13-1 | 13 Ancient 13-7 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































