
AWPer
brn$
Yawara Esports vs Grêmio
RISK · UNDER 28.5
≈ L5 26.4 · L20 26.6Risk · Edge -2.1 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 28.5 (Under)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
50%
1/2
Volatility
Medium
±7.95
Previous meeting · vs Grêmio
1/2 hit · avg 31 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-08 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 3
Nuke 19-16 · Mirage 13-10 · W
41
Over 28.5 ✗
2026-09-25 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: South America - Cup 2
Nuke 13-9 · Mirage 11-13 · Split
21
Under 28.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
26.6
2/5 hit at 28.5
Online · this match
26.6
11/15 hit at 28.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm brn$ is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 28.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 68.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 28 kills or fewer: below 0.645 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (16.7%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
26.4
Raw edge
-2.1
Cons. hit
48.7%
EV+
-15.7%
Rating
1.9/10
Exp. rounds
44.2
Line
28.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
48.7%
-1 →
Learned
47.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 26.5-30.5
All players · Kills
46.4%334 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 60.4% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -2.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 68% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 17% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (26.39) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 25.3 kills vs line 28.5 (3/10 over). KPR 0.56, HS 34%. Next: vs Grêmio, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 25.3 against a 28.5 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (75%) — fewer total rounds
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 26.4 vs line 28.5 → -2.1 (-7.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.2 rounds · 2-0 75% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
13.3
HS/Map
4.47
K/D
0.97
KPR
0.56
ADR
58.7
KAST
71.9%
HS%
33.6%
Multi-kill
12.1%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)13.4 · KPR 0.607 · 22.2r
Map 2 (Ancient)13 · KPR 0.596 · 22r
Required KPR to clear0.645
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26.59
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.73%
Final projected kills26.39
Grêmio gives up (54 series)+11.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 28.5. Model: 60.4% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps25.6%
~22 kills · 37r83.2%
Normal43.6%
~26 kills · 44r64.8%
Close maps14.1%
~28 kills · 47r54%
Overtime16.7%
~32 kills · 53r35.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 PMOnline CCT South America 2026 Series 7
Win chance source: Polymarket 68.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 68% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
22.2r
+9% KPR here
M2 Ancient
22r
+7% KPR here
Total
44.2r
2-0 sweep75%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)25.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 28.5 (Under) · avg 25.3 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
28.5
Nearby lines
| 26.5 Under | 42.7% | below BE |
| 27.5 Under | 45.7% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 48.7% | OFFERED |
| 29.5 Under | 51.5% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 54.2% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 28.5
Line movement
first 28.5→offno change
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 10:00 PM
- Back on board28.5 → 28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled28.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen28.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Anubis
13 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
35%
K/D
1.12
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.61
HS%
27.3%
K/D
0.94
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.57
HS%
35.1%
K/D
0.89
Mirage
5 maps
Kills
14.4
KPR
0.63
HS%
37.5%
K/D
1.03
Cache
4 maps
Kills
12.2
KPR
0.52
HS%
30.6%
K/D
0.78
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
12
KPR
0.49
HS%
41.7%
K/D
0.78
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-22 | your end | 12 Anubis 13-8 | 10 Mirage 13-8 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Galorys | 5 Anubis 4-13 | 9 Ancient 2-13 | 14 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | ex-Keyd Stars | 11 Anubis 13-7 | 10 Dust2 6-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-08 | Grêmio | 20 Nuke 19-16 | 21 Mirage 13-10 | 41 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-03 | Turma do Pagode | 8 Cache 9-13 | 26 Ancient 18-22 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-01 | BORRACHEIROS | 16 Anubis 13-6 | 18 Ancient 13-9 | 34 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Turma do Pagode | 13 Anubis 5-13 | 6 Ancient 10-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | METANOIA Wolves | 19 Ancient 13-11 | 7 Anubis 14-16 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | Grêmio | 7 Nuke 13-9 | 14 Mirage 11-13 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Bounty Hunters | 12 Anubis 8-13 | 9 Nuke 4-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Bounty Hunters | 14 Anubis 13-6 | 10 Mirage 11-13 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-24 | Juventus | 16 Ancient 13-1 | 13 Anubis 13-3 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | Galorys | 5 Anubis 13-10 | 8 Ancient 9-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Low Cortisol BR | 17 Mirage 9-13 | 8 Dust2 4-13 | 25 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-17 | Bounty Hunters | 18 Anubis 13-9 | 15 Cache 10-13 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-16 | Bounty Hunters | 15 Cache 13-16 | 22 Anubis 14-16 | 37 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-05 | Bounty Hunters | 8 Dust2 9-13 | 11 Cache 8-13 | 19 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-03 | paiN Academy | 19 Dust2 13-16 | 32 Anubis 19-16 | 51 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-26 | PEAK | 8 Ancient 13-6 | 12 Dust2 13-5 | 20 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | Keyd Stars | 17 Dust2 13-11 | 11 Ancient 7-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ |









































































































































































