KillsRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
30.63
Hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.7%
Edge
+0.1
L10
40%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
18.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.63
Hit
54.1%
EV+
-6.2%
Edge
+0.1
L10
60%

Rifler
Spinx
MOUZ vs Liquid
RISK · OVER 30.5
BEST OVER · UD 29.5PP30.5UD29.5
≈ L5 31.0 · L20 32.3Risk · Edge +0.1 far below ±3.0
Hit rates at 30.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±4.58
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
1/1 hit · avg 33 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 16-13 · Inferno 12-16 · Split
33
Over 30.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
32.3
12/20 hit at 30.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Spinx is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 31+ kills: 0.681 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (24.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
30.63
Raw edge
+0.1
Cons. hit
49.2%
EV+
-14.7%
Rating
2.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
49.2%
-1.8 →
Learned
47.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
55.2%286 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +0.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (30.47) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.0 kills vs line 29.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 61%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 31.0 against a 29.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.63 vs line 30.5 → +0.13 (0.4%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
16.12
HS/Map
9.78
K/D
1.28
KPR
0.7
ADR
80.4
KAST
77.2%
HS%
60.6%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)15.7 · KPR 0.681 · 23.1r
Map 2 (Inferno)14.8 · KPR 0.681 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.681
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.51
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.11%
Final projected kills30.47
Liquid gives up (41 series)-5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 30.5. Model: 51.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~26 kills · 38r17.8%
Normal44.8%
~31 kills · 45r48.8%
Close maps16.4%
~33 kills · 48r64.1%
Overtime14.4%
~37 kills · 54r84.8%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
23.1r
-3% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.7r
-3% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Over) · avg 31.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Over | 61.3% | |
| 29.5 Over | 57.8% | |
| 30.5 Over | 49.2% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Over | 44% | below BE |
| 32.5 Over | 39% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 29.5→30.5+1
- Back on board30.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 09:11 AM
- Back on board30.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Moved up29.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 05:56 AM
- First seen29.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
17.4
KPR
0.79
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.53
Cache
7 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.7
HS%
53.9%
K/D
1.26
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
18
KPR
0.84
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.4
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
14.7
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.4%
K/D
1.19
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.5%
K/D
1.1
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.65
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 20 Ancient 16-13 | 13 Inferno 12-16 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 14 Cache 8-13 | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 24 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 17 Dust2 13-7 | 11 Mirage 5-13 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 17 Nuke 13-11 | 13 Inferno 13-6 | 30 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 22 Dust2 13-5 | 18 Mirage 13-11 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 13 Cache 13-4 | 15 Mirage 13-7 | 28 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 12 Cache 13-9 | 15 Mirage 13-6 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 16 Cache 8-13 | 21 Mirage 19-16 | 37 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 14 Cache 10-13 | 19 Inferno 13-10 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 13 Cache 11-13 | 17 Inferno 13-5 | 30 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 8 Dust2 8-13 | 17 Mirage 13-11 | 25 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 18 Dust2 13-11 | 22 Mirage 13-7 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 5 Nuke 6-13 | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 19 Ancient 13-4 | 15 Mirage 13-5 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 20 Cache 13-4 | 11 Nuke 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 20 Dust2 13-16 | 12 Ancient 5-13 | 32 | L | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 20 Mirage 13-11 | 24 Ancient 19-22 | 44 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 18 Dust2 13-4 | 16 Inferno 13-10 | 34 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 6 Ancient 6-13 | 26 Nuke 16-12 | 32 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 23 Dust2 13-8 | 20 Mirage 13-4 | 43 | W | Over ✓ | BO |







































































































































































