KillsBetter playTake
Line
31.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
39.81
Hit
70.5%
EV+
+22.1%
Edge
+8.3
L10
100%
HeadshotsTake
Line
10.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.46
Hit
66.3%
EV+
+14.8%
Edge
+3.0
L10
90%

AWPer
adeX
Alter Ego vs NEXVOID
TAKE · OVER 10.5
SL10.5
▼ L5 12.6 · L20 13.3
Hit rates at 10.5 (Over)
L5
80%
4/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
85%
17/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.67
Previous meeting · vs NEXVOID
1/1 hit · avg 11 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-08-26 · ESL Challenger League Season 52: Asia - Cup 1
Dust2 13-7 · Inferno 5-13 · Split
11
Over 10.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
—
no series
Online
13.3
17/20 hit at 10.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm adeX is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 11.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 11+ HS (~30 kills at 36.2% HS): 0.675 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (55.5%) or blowout (20%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
13.46
Raw edge
+3.0
Cons. hit
66.3%
EV+
+14.8%
Rating
9.5/10
Exp. rounds
43
Line
10.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
66.3%
+1.7 →
Learned
68%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
57.5%106 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 79% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 90.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 85.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 56% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (13.82) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.5 headshots vs line 10.5 (9/10 over). KPR 0.88, HS 36%. Next: vs NEXVOID, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.5 against a 10.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
VALUE
- • Model 13.46 vs line 10.5 → +2.96 (28.2%)
- • Form L5 80% · L10 90% over this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 43 rounds · 2-0 55.5% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
18.45
HS/Map
6.67
K/D
1.34
KPR
0.88
ADR
91
KAST
74.4%
HS%
36.2%
Multi-kill
24.3%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)7.2 · KPR 0.886 · 22.5r
Map 2 (Ancient)6.6 · KPR 0.897 · 20.5r
Required KPR to clear0.675
Base kills (Maps 1-2)38.32
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.37%
Final projected kills38.18
× realistic HS% (36.2%)13.46
NEXVOID gives up (24 series)0% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 10.5. Model: 79% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20%
~11 HS · 36r57.2%
Normal45%
~13 HS · 42r76.4%
Close maps25%
~14 HS · 46r84.3%
Overtime10%
~16 HS · 52r92.7%
Match context
Oct 26, 03:00 AMLANDFRAG Invitational 2026
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptIdeal Over range — team 42% to win (40-70%), competitive maps expected.
M1 Dust2
22.5r
+1% KPR here
M2 Ancient
20.5r
+2% KPR here
Total
43r
2-0 sweep55.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Over) · avg 12.5 · hit 9/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Over | 67.2% | |
| 9.5 Over | 66.9% | |
| 10.5 Over | 66.3% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Over | 63.5% | |
| 12.5 Over | 55.4% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 11.5
Line movement
first 10.5→offno change
- Pulled11.5Oct 24, 09:38 PM
- Moved up10.5 → 11.5Oct 24, 05:10 PM
- First seen10.5Oct 24, 01:02 PM
Map stats
Dust2
11 maps
Kills
20.2
KPR
0.89
HS%
28.4%
K/D
1.36
Ancient
11 maps
Kills
18.3
KPR
0.9
HS%
42.3%
K/D
1.48
Inferno
4 maps
Kills
15.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
46.8%
K/D
1
Cache
4 maps
Kills
22
KPR
0.92
HS%
28.4%
K/D
1.4
Mirage
3 maps
Kills
19.7
KPR
0.94
HS%
30.5%
K/D
1.59
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
15.7
KPR
0.72
HS%
53.2%
K/D
1.34
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.76
HS%
35.4%
K/D
1.26
Overpass
1 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.52
HS%
45.5%
K/D
0.69
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-14 | Lynn Vision | 10 Anubis 13-9 | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | Just Swing | 8 Cache 10-13 | 4 Dust2 19-15 | 12 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Chinggis Warriors | 7 Inferno 13-9 | 11 Dust2 13-9 | 18 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | The KnockoutX | 3 Dust2 13-10 | 1 Cache 13-10 | 4 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Vitalem Aerem | 7 Ancient 16-14 | 5 Mirage 13-6 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | The Huns | 8 Ancient 13-11 | 7 Cache 12-16 | 15 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Kaleido | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 5 Dust2 14-16 | 11 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-07 | Legion | 5 Dust2 13-2 | 7 Anubis 13-7 | 12 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-30 | Just Swing | 9 Cache 13-9 | 2 Dust2 11-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-29 | The Huns | 6 Dust2 11-13 | 7 Ancient 13-7 | 13 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-28 | Nas | 2 Mirage 13-8 | 6 Dust2 13-3 | 8 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | Kaleido | 8 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Ancient 13-4 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-26 | NEXVOID | 5 Dust2 13-7 | 6 Inferno 5-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-25 | QuantumX | 6 Ancient 13-1 | 8 Dust2 13-6 | 14 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-25 | los kogutos | 10 Nuke 13-7 | 7 Ancient 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-02 | Wampirki | 7 Ancient 5-13 | 9 Inferno 11-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-05-30 | KOLESIE | 11 Mirage 10-13 | 5 Overpass 8-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-29 | Betclic | 12 Ancient 13-7 | 8 Nuke 11-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-28 | Project 91 | 7 Nuke 8-13 | 11 Ancient 13-9 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-05-27 | Gentle Mates | 0 Anubis 8-13 | 6 Ancient 10-13 | 6 | L | Under ✗ |









































































































































































