KillsBetter playRisk
Line
21
Pick
OVER
Projection
22.34
Hit
50.2%
EV+
-13.1%
Edge
+1.3
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
13
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.13
Hit
46.5%
EV+
-19.5%
Edge
+0.1
L10
50%
#158Ranked 158 of 277 on the board

Rifler
Moseyuh
TYLOO vs Team Spirit
RISK · OVER 21
BEST OVER · PP 21PP21UD22.5
▲ L5 24.4 · L20 23.4Risk · Edge +1.3 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 21 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
63%
10/16
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±5.55
Previous meeting · vs Team Spirit
No meeting with Team Spirit in his last 16 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
22.8
6/11 hit at 21
Online
24.8
4/5 hit at 21
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm Moseyuh is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 21
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 10.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 22+ kills: 0.566 KPR over ~37 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (67.5%) or blowout (41.6%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
22.34
Raw edge
+1.3
Cons. hit
50.2%
EV+
-13.1%
Rating
1.5/10
Exp. rounds
37.1
Line
21
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
50.2%
+8.7 →
Learned
58.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 19-23
All players · Kills
76.9%13 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 59.5% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +1.3 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- Game script fits: 2-0 sweep 68% (Overs need rounds)
- Blowout loss risk — team only 10% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 16 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 62.5% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 68% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (21.45) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 22.8 kills vs line 21.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 59%. Next: vs Spirit, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 22.8 against a 21.0 line
Biggest risk: High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- High 2-0 sweep chance (68%) — fewer total rounds
- 31% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 22.34 vs line 21 → +1.34 (6.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 50% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 37.1 rounds · 2-0 67.5% · OT 1.4%
Performance (last 32 maps)
Kills/Map
11.72
HS/Map
6.88
K/D
0.92
KPR
0.57
ADR
62.5
KAST
72.5%
HS%
58.7%
Multi-kill
13.2%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Mirage)10.6 · KPR 0.609 · 18r
Map 2 (Ancient)10.8 · KPR 0.587 · 19.1r
Required KPR to clear0.566
Base kills (Maps 1-2)22.19
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-3.31%
Final projected kills21.45
Team Spirit gives up (133 series)-1% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 21. Model: 59.5% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps41.6%
~19 kills · 32r28.8%
Normal46.4%
~25 kills · 41r72%
Close maps10.6%
~24 kills · 41r70.5%
Overtime1.4%
~28 kills · 47r89%
Match context
Oct 25, 08:00 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 10.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 10% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Mirage
18r
+14% KPR here
M2 Ancient
19.1r
+10% KPR here
Total
37.1r
2-0 sweep67.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)12%
Overtime1.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)41.6%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Mirage / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 21 (Over) · avg 22.8 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
21
Nearby lines
| 19 Over | 61.5% | |
| 20 Over | 55.8% | below BE |
| 21 Over | 50.2% | OFFERED |
| 22 Over | 46.1% | below BE |
| 23 Over | 41.9% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 21
Line movement
first 21→21no change
- First seen21Oct 25, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
12.3
KPR
0.67
HS%
61.8%
K/D
1.05
Inferno
7 maps
Kills
7.3
KPR
0.36
HS%
49%
K/D
0.53
Ancient
7 maps
Kills
12.7
KPR
0.65
HS%
51.7%
K/D
1.11
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.68
HS%
69.9%
K/D
0.97
Cache
2 maps
Kills
14.5
KPR
0.72
HS%
58.6%
K/D
1.21
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
10
KPR
0.5
HS%
50%
K/D
0.62
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | FUT | 13 Nuke 9-13 | 12 Ancient 6-13 | 25 | L | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-05 | M80 | 16 Mirage 13-10 | 13 Cache 7-13 | 29 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-04 | 9z | 25 Nuke 10-13 | 2 Mirage 2-13 | 27 | L | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | Falcons | 11 Mirage 11-13 | 10 Anubis 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-10 | Alliance | 4 Inferno 11-13 | 16 Ancient 11-13 | 20 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | GamerLegion | 18 Ancient 13-7 | 13 Mirage 13-6 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-08 | PARIVISION | 7 Inferno 11-13 | 5 Ancient 4-13 | 12 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | DEPO | 10 Mirage 13-2 | 10 Inferno 13-2 | 20 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-02 | Kaleido | 16 Mirage 13-5 | 10 Inferno 13-9 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | Lynn Vision | 12 Nuke 8-13 | 5 Inferno 4-13 | 17 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-07-12 | Lynn Vision | 15 Ancient 13-6 | 8 Inferno 10-13 | 23 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-11 | The Huns | 13 Ancient 13-9 | 16 Mirage 13-2 | 29 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-10 | The MongolZ Academy | 10 Ancient 13-3 | 16 Mirage 13-1 | 26 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-07-09 | 9z | 11 Nuke 9-13 | 17 Mirage 13-7 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-07-03 | EYEBALLERS | 12 Nuke 13-6 | 16 Cache 13-7 | 28 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-06-09 | Legacy | 6 Mirage 7-13 | 7 Inferno 4-13 | 13 | L | Under ✗ | BO |








































































































































































