KillsRisk
Line
25.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
25.55
Hit
40.4%
EV+
-30.1%
Edge
+0.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
10.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
9.74
Hit
51.8%
EV+
-10.3%
Edge
-0.8
L10
70%

Rifler
zont1x
Team Spirit vs BetBoom
RISK · UNDER 10.5
BEST UNDER · PP 10.5PP10.5UD9.5
▼ L5 7.4 · L20 10.3Risk · Edge -0.8 far below ±2.0LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 10.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
60%
12/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±2.17
Previous meeting · vs BetBoom
No meeting with BetBoom in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
10.3
12/20 hit at 10.5
Online
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm zont1x is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 10.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 66.5%
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 10 HS or fewer (under ~27 kills at 41% HS): below 0.578 KPR over ~44 rounds. Main danger: overtime (7.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
9.74
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
51.8%
EV+
-10.3%
Rating
2.2/10
Exp. rounds
44.3
Line
10.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
51.8%
-2.5 →
Learned
49.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 8.5-12.5
All players · Headshots
42.5%106 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -0.8 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Under risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 60.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 8% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (10.75) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 8.9 headshots vs line 10.0 (3/10 over). KPR 0.57, HS 41%. Next: vs BetBoom, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 8.9 against a 10.0 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 9.74 vs line 10.5 → -0.76 (-7.2%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 70% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 44.3 rounds · 2-0 7.8% · OT 7.8%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
12.5
HS/Map
5.12
K/D
0.89
KPR
0.57
ADR
67.9
KAST
70.2%
HS%
41%
Multi-kill
12.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Anubis)5.3 · KPR 0.568 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Ancient)5.4 · KPR 0.607 · 21.6r
Required KPR to clear0.578
Base kills (Maps 1-2)26
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.81%
Final projected kills26.21
× realistic HS% (41%)9.74
BetBoom gives up (64 series)+5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 10.5. Model: 63.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps20.5%
~8 HS · 37r79.3%
Normal44.5%
~10 HS · 44r62%
Close maps27.2%
~10 HS · 47r53.1%
Overtime7.8%
~12 HS · 53r37.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:40 AMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 66.5%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Heads upUnder risk — team 66% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Anubis
22.7r
-1% KPR here
M2 Ancient
21.6r
+6% KPR here
Total
44.3r
2-0 sweep7.8%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)35%
Overtime7.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)20.5%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Anubis / Ancient
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 10.5 (Under) · avg 8.9 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
10.5
Nearby lines
| 8.5 Under | 26.6% | below BE |
| 9.5 Under | 38.9% | below BE |
| 10.5 Under | 51.8% | OFFERED |
| 11.5 Under | 62.3% | |
| 12.5 Under | 65% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 10.5
Line movement
first 10→10.5+0.5
- Back on board10 → 10.5Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled10Oct 24, 10:03 AM
- First seen10Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
12 maps
Kills
11.4
KPR
0.53
HS%
41.6%
K/D
0.87
Cache
7 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.54
HS%
43%
K/D
0.88
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
13.4
KPR
0.64
HS%
39.4%
K/D
0.9
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.5
KPR
0.62
HS%
39.5%
K/D
0.99
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
13.2
KPR
0.56
HS%
42.4%
K/D
0.82
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
14.3
KPR
0.57
HS%
39.5%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-11 | Aurora | 7 Mirage 9-13 | 3 Anubis 6-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | MOUZ | 3 Dust2 7-13 | 4 Mirage 13-5 | 7 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | Falcons | 3 Mirage 13-8 | 3 Anubis 13-10 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | M80 | 4 Dust2 13-6 | 3 Cache 13-10 | 7 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | 1win | 1 Cache 5-13 | 6 Anubis 9-13 | 7 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 5-13 | 8 Mirage 11-13 | 13 | L | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | PARIVISION | 3 Ancient 11-13 | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-03 | ShindeN | 5 Dust2 11-13 | 4 Nuke 13-11 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-06 | MOUZ | 5 Dust2 13-8 | 6 Mirage 11-13 | 11 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Falcons | 2 Nuke 13-8 | 9 Ancient 13-11 | 11 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | FURIA | 1 Ancient 13-10 | 5 Cache 13-5 | 6 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | G2 | 3 Dust2 13-6 | 7 Cache 13-9 | 10 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | DENDELE | 8 Ancient 13-8 | 6 Cache 13-7 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-23 | FUT | 7 Cache 10-13 | 9 Anubis 16-13 | 16 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-22 | Legacy | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 5 Ancient 13-9 | 14 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-21 | Vitality | 7 Anubis 13-11 | 11 Nuke 14-16 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-08-20 | B8 | 3 Dust2 13-9 | 5 Mirage 13-9 | 8 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-15 | BIG | 5 Cache 9-13 | 4 Dust2 13-10 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-08-13 | Luminosity | 6 Ancient 13-3 | 9 Dust2 19-15 | 15 | W | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-02 | MOUZ | 2 Dust2 8-13 | 4 Mirage 4-13 | 6 | L | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































