KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
31.63
Hit
53.1%
EV+
-8.0%
Edge
+2.1
L10
60%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
18.66
Hit
52.4%
EV+
-9.2%
Edge
+0.7
L10
70%

Rifler
KaiR0N-
Nemiga vs Legacy
RISK · OVER 29.5
PP29.5
▼ L5 30.8 · L20 35.1Risk · Edge +2.1 far below ±3.0 +1
Hit rates at 29.5 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
75%
15/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Medium
±7.6
Previous meeting · vs Legacy
No meeting with Legacy in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
31.8
2/4 hit at 29.5
Online
36
13/16 hit at 29.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm KaiR0N- is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 34.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 30+ kills: 0.691 KPR over ~43 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54.5%) or blowout (26.9%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
31.63
Raw edge
+2.1
Cons. hit
53.1%
EV+
-8.0%
Rating
2.4/10
Exp. rounds
42.7
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
53.1%
+7.3 →
Learned
60.4%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
56%332 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 61% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge +2.1 below ±3.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Blowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 75.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 55% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (31.99) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 33.3 kills vs line 30.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.73, HS 59%. Next: vs Legacy, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 33.3 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 31.63 vs line 29.5 → +2.13 (7.2%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 60% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 42.7 rounds · 2-0 54.5% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
17.57
HS/Map
10.32
K/D
1.15
KPR
0.73
ADR
76.6
KAST
72.3%
HS%
58.7%
Multi-kill
17.9%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)13.7 · KPR 0.713 · 19.2r
Map 2 (Mirage)18.3 · KPR 0.781 · 23.5r
Required KPR to clear0.691
Base kills (Maps 1-2)32.06
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.22%
Final projected kills31.99
Legacy gives up (79 series)-4.3% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 29.5. Model: 61% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps26.9%
~27 kills · 36r30%
Normal50.6%
~32 kills · 43r62.6%
Close maps5.8%
~34 kills · 46r73%
Overtime16.7%
~38 kills · 52r89.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:55 PMLANPGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Win chance source: Polymarket 34.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
⚠ Blowout riskBlowout loss risk — team only 34% to win. Big underdogs often lose maps 13-3 and the Over dies (e.g. Temny Prince: 9 kills in a 3-13 map 1). Over is penalised and can't be a Take.
M1 Cache
19.2r
+4% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.5r
+14% KPR here
Total
42.7r
2-0 sweep54.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)22.5%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)26.9%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Over) · avg 33.3 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Over | 59.8% | |
| 28.5 Over | 55.9% | below BE |
| 29.5 Over | 53.1% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Over | 48.1% | below BE |
| 31.5 Over | 45% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 30.5→29.5-1
- Back on board30.5 → 29.5Oct 24, 09:08 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 12:46 PM
- Back on board30.5 → 30.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 12:45 PM
- First seen30.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
54.7%
K/D
1.12
Mirage
9 maps
Kills
22.1
KPR
0.87
HS%
56.8%
K/D
1.16
Ancient
8 maps
Kills
15.4
KPR
0.76
HS%
54.5%
K/D
1.07
Dust2
6 maps
Kills
18.3
KPR
0.8
HS%
62.7%
K/D
1.15
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
17
KPR
0.82
HS%
67.6%
K/D
1.24
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.5
KPR
0.79
HS%
65.2%
K/D
1.29
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-10 | Iberian Soul | 9 Cache 7-13 | 18 Nuke 16-13 | 27 | Split | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | Lavked | 16 Anubis 13-5 | 19 Dust2 13-4 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Astralis | 14 Mirage 6-13 | 14 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-03 | Luminosity | 23 Cache 13-11 | 16 Dust2 16-13 | 39 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-02 | Alliance | 8 Cache 13-6 | 17 Ancient 13-8 | 25 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-01 | FaZe | 20 Mirage 16-12 | 15 Ancient 13-11 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | BET-M | 13 Anubis 13-10 | 14 Nuke 13-6 | 27 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-28 | FOKUS | 19 Dust2 13-6 | 33 Mirage 22-20 | 52 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-27 | Color | 14 Cache 13-5 | 16 Dust2 9-13 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | Black Phoenix | 16 Cache 13-9 | 19 Dust2 9-13 | 35 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | INOX Division | 16 Nuke 13-2 | 17 Ancient 13-10 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-24 | Just Players | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 18 Cache 13-6 | 35 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-14 | Metizport | 30 Mirage 16-14 | 18 Nuke 13-8 | 48 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-13 | SINNERS | 19 Cache 13-10 | 26 Mirage 13-10 | 45 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-12 | Just Players | 14 Ancient 13-6 | 19 Cache 13-3 | 33 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-10 | K27 | 13 Anubis 10-13 | 17 Mirage 13-9 | 30 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-09 | HOTU | 12 Ancient 3-13 | 11 Cache 13-4 | 23 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-08 | Color | 21 Dust2 16-13 | 26 Anubis 13-6 | 47 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-06 | FOKUS | 24 Mirage 16-14 | 20 Ancient 13-3 | 44 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-05 | Nemesis | 18 Mirage 13-1 | 14 Ancient 13-7 | 32 | W | Over ✓ | BO |







































































































































































