KillsBetter playRisk
Line
30.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
30.27
Hit
38.2%
EV+
-33.9%
Edge
-0.2
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
16.3
Hit
34%
EV+
-41.1%
Edge
+0.8
L10
50%

Rifler
Hitori
G2 Ares vs The Last Resort
RISK · UNDER 30.5
≈ L5 31.8 · L20 31.0Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 30.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
42%
8/19
H2H
0%
0/2
Volatility
Medium
±7.45
Previous meeting · vs The Last Resort
0/2 hit · avg 33.5 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-14 · CCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Ancient 10-13 · Inferno 13-8 · Split
36
Over 30.5 ✗
2026-09-25 · Hotspawn 10k Showdown: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-11 · Cache 13-8 · W
31
Over 30.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
33.5
2/4 hit at 30.5
Online
30.3
6/15 hit at 30.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm Hitori is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 30.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
underdog · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 30 kills or fewer: below 0.738 KPR over ~41 rounds. Main danger: overtime (19.8%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
30.27
Raw edge
-0.2
Cons. hit
38.2%
EV+
-33.9%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
41.3
Line
30.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
38.2%
-7.9 →
Learned
30.3%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 28.5-32.5
All players · Kills
44.8%286 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 51.2% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.2 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 42.1% at this line
- Under risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 42.1% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 20% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (29.61) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 31.4 kills vs line 30.5 (5/10 over). KPR 0.70, HS 53%. Next: vs The Last Resort, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 31.4 against a 30.5 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 30.27 vs line 30.5 → -0.23 (-0.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
- • Expected 41.3 rounds · 2-0 56.5% · OT 19.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
15.5
HS/Map
8.16
K/D
1
KPR
0.7
ADR
80.9
KAST
75.4%
HS%
52.6%
Multi-kill
16.7%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Inferno)16.2 · KPR 0.782 · 20.7r
Map 2 (Anubis)13.4 · KPR 0.648 · 20.6r
Required KPR to clear0.738
Base kills (Maps 1-2)29.53
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.27%
Final projected kills29.61
The Last Resort gives up (40 series)+8.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 30.5. Model: 51.2% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24%
~25 kills · 35r81.3%
Normal39.5%
~29 kills · 40r60.9%
Close maps16.7%
~32 kills · 44r40.1%
Overtime19.8%
~37 kills · 50r18.5%
Match context
Oct 24, 12:00 PMLANHotspawn 10k Showdown
Win chance source: Bookmaker odds via bo3.gg
Heavy favourite (≥70%) → shorter maps (−1.5/map) but easier kills (+8% KPR)
Heads upUnder risk — team 76% to win; favourites win more rounds and their players usually get more kills.
M1 Inferno
20.7r
+4% KPR here
M2 Anubis
20.6r
-14% KPR here
Total
41.3r
2-0 sweep56.5%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)36.5%
Overtime19.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24%
Veto confirmed (bo3.gg): Inferno / Anubis
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 30.5 (Under) · avg 31.4 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
30.5
Nearby lines
| 28.5 Under | 31.8% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 35% | below BE |
| 30.5 Under | 38.2% | OFFERED |
| 31.5 Under | 41.3% | below BE |
| 32.5 Under | 44.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 30.5
Line movement
first 30.5→offno change
- Pulled30.5Oct 24, 12:12 PM
- First seen30.5Oct 23, 11:11 PM
Map stats
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.73
HS%
54.1%
K/D
1.14
Ancient
9 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.72
HS%
55%
K/D
1.01
Cache
8 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.76
HS%
46.4%
K/D
1.16
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
13.6
KPR
0.67
HS%
51.5%
K/D
0.87
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.59
HS%
62%
K/D
0.83
Anubis
3 maps
Kills
11.3
KPR
0.5
HS%
50%
K/D
0.64
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-21 | Illyrians | 15 Ancient 13-7 | 11 Mirage 10-13 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | mellren | 15 Mirage 13-10 | 21 Ancient 14-16 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-17 | ex-6666 | 14 Inferno 11-13 | 9 Dust2 2-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | BAKS | 17 Cache 3-13 | 21 Inferno 16-13 | 38 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-14 | The Last Resort | 19 Ancient 10-13 | 17 Inferno 13-8 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Sangal | 12 Anubis 13-16 | 16 Ancient 13-10 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-09 | NAVI Junior | 14 Anubis 11-13 | 12 Cache 13-5 | 26 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | INFINITE | 20 Inferno 13-7 | 26 Ancient 16-14 | 46 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-08 | RBLS | 8 Anubis 2-13 | 26 Cache 16-13 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-27 | Famalicão | 9 Dust2 7-13 | 12 Ancient 13-4 | 21 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | STATE | 14 Ancient 9-13 | 23 Cache 19-15 | 37 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-25 | The Last Resort | 17 Inferno 13-11 | 14 Cache 13-8 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-23 | NAVI Junior | 8 Mirage 6-13 | 21 Ancient 16-12 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | INOX Division | 7 Ancient 5-13 | 16 Dust2 6-13 | 23 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 11 Dust2 6-13 | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | Leo | 16 Mirage 7-13 | 17 Cache 13-10 | 33 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | QUAZAR | 20 Inferno 13-7 | 12 Cache 6-13 | 32 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | Honvéd | 15 Inferno 13-7 | 23 Dust2 16-12 | 38 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-17 | BAKS | 14 Inferno 13-11 | 17 Cache 9-13 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ |








































































































































































