KillsBetter playTake
Line
24.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
28.76
Hit
62.7%
EV+
+8.5%
Edge
+4.3
L10
60%
HeadshotsLean
Line
12
Pick
OVER
Projection
13.55
Hit
57.1%
EV+
-1.2%
Edge
+1.6
L10
40%

Rifler
NickelBack
FORZE Reload vs Nuclear TigeRES
TAKE · OVER 24.5
≈ L5 29.4 · L20 28.9
Hit rates at 24.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
60%
6/10
L20
70%
14/20
H2H
N/A
Volatility
Low
±6.22
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
No meeting with Nuclear TigeRES in his last 20 series.
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
28.9
14/20 hit at 24.5
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm NickelBack is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 26
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 36.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Take
What to watch · Needs 25+ kills: 0.546 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (24.1%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
28.76
Raw edge
+4.3
Cons. hit
62.7%
EV+
+8.5%
Rating
8.5/10
Exp. rounds
44.9
Line
24.5
Verdict
Take
Plain model
62.7%
+7.8 →
Learned
70.5%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 22.5-26.5
All players · Kills
58.7%138 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 75.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Near the blowout zone — team 36% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Clears edge, form, EV+, volatility and every sharp check
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 60.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 70.0% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.48) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 28.4 kills vs line 24.5 (6/10 over). KPR 0.61, HS 48%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 28.4 against a 24.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
TAKE OVER
Value
THIN
- • Model 28.76 vs line 24.5 → +4.26 (17.4%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 60% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 44.9 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 16.7%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.45
HS/Map
7
K/D
0.96
KPR
0.61
ADR
73.3
KAST
73.3%
HS%
48.4%
Multi-kill
13.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Dust2)13 · KPR 0.595 · 21.8r
Map 2 (Mirage)15.5 · KPR 0.671 · 23.1r
Required KPR to clear0.546
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.48
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.+0.02%
Final projected kills28.48
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)+0.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 24.5. Model: 75.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.1%
~24 kills · 38r45.8%
Normal49.2%
~29 kills · 45r76.9%
Close maps10%
~31 kills · 48r86.7%
Overtime16.7%
~35 kills · 54r95.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 02:00 PMOnline
Win chance source: Polymarket 36.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 36% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Dust2
21.8r
+3% KPR here
M2 Mirage
23.1r
+16% KPR here
Total
44.9r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime16.7%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.1%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Dust2 / Mirage
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 24.5 (Over) · avg 28.4 · hit 6/10 · tap a bar
24.5
Nearby lines
| 22.5 Over | 65.9% | |
| 23.5 Over | 64.7% | |
| 24.5 Over | 62.7% | OFFERED |
| 25.5 Over | 60.8% | |
| 26.5 Over | 58.4% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 26
Line movement
first 24.5→offno change
- Pulled24.5Oct 24, 02:00 PM
- First seen24.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Dust2
19 maps
Kills
14.6
KPR
0.64
HS%
54.9%
K/D
0.94
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
19.1
KPR
0.76
HS%
43.3%
K/D
1.09
Cache
6 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.69
HS%
40.3%
K/D
1.28
Ancient
4 maps
Kills
14.2
KPR
0.59
HS%
42.1%
K/D
0.85
Inferno
3 maps
Kills
8.7
KPR
0.38
HS%
42.3%
K/D
0.58
Nuke
1 maps
Kills
7
KPR
0.39
HS%
57.1%
K/D
0.47
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | FORZE Reload | 12 Ancient 13-7 | 11 Dust2 13-7 | 23 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-22 | FORZE Reload | 28 Mirage 19-16 | 14 Cache 13-5 | 42 | W | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-10-20 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 10 Dust2 10-13 | 14 Cache 13-11 | 24 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-18 | FORZE Reload | 16 Dust2 13-6 | 15 Cache 13-0 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | FOKUS | 18 Dust2 16-14 | 9 Cache 7-13 | 27 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-23 | Just Players | 17 Dust2 13-10 | 14 Mirage 13-3 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-21 | BRUTE | 13 Dust2 10-13 | 8 Mirage 7-13 | 21 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-20 | INOX Division | 13 Dust2 13-11 | 8 Inferno 16-12 | 21 | W | Under ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Color | 14 Dust2 11-13 | 17 Mirage 13-16 | 31 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-16 | BAKS | 18 Ancient 16-19 | 15 Dust2 13-5 | 33 | Split | Over ✓ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-12 | Color | 8 Inferno 7-13 | 12 Dust2 13-11 | 20 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-09 | Leo | 9 Dust2 13-7 | 7 Nuke 5-13 | 16 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | ex-Zero Tenacity | 17 Cache 13-6 | 10 Dust2 13-2 | 27 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-04 | HAVU | 13 Dust2 13-6 | 33 Mirage 20-19 | 46 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-29 | Honvéd | 17 Mirage 13-4 | 14 Dust2 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-28 | Inner Circle Academy | 12 Ancient 7-13 | 13 Dust2 13-9 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-26 | INOX Division | 18 Dust2 11-13 | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-23 | Color | 23 Dust2 22-19 | 17 Mirage 13-8 | 40 | W | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-21 | Leo | 15 Ancient 13-9 | 15 Dust2 13-10 | 30 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-20 | Color | 23 Dust2 11-13 | 8 Cache 13-4 | 31 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |







































































































































































