KillsRisk
Line
27.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
27.21
Hit
51.5%
EV+
-10.7%
Edge
-0.3
L10
70%
HeadshotsBetter playRisk
Line
14.5
Pick
OVER
Projection
14.91
Hit
55.7%
EV+
-3.4%
Edge
+0.4
L10
70%

Rifler
VLDN
ex-Zero Tenacity vs Nuclear TigeRES
RISK · OVER 14.5
▼ L5 15.2 · L20 16.1Risk · Edge +0.4 far below ±2.0
Hit rates at 14.5 (Over)
L5
60%
3/5
L10
70%
7/10
L20
63%
12/19
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.82
Previous meeting · vs Nuclear TigeRES
1/1 hit · avg 17 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-25 · Stake Ranked Episode 5: Closed Qualifier
Inferno 13-7 · Dust2 14-16 · Split
17
Over 14.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
—
no series
Online · this match
16.1
12/19 hit at 14.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm VLDN is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 14.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 38.5%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
underdog · Headshots · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Needs 15+ HS (~27 kills at 55.2% HS): 0.631 KPR over ~42 rounds. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (54%) or blowout (24.4%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
14.91
Raw edge
+0.4
Cons. hit
55.7%
EV+
-3.4%
Rating
4.5/10
Exp. rounds
41.6
Line
14.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
55.7%
-8.7 →
Learned
47%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 12.5-16.5
All players · Headshots
61.7%261 picks
This player
—0 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.3% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +0.4 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- Near the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 19 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 70.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 63.2% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 54% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.79) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 16.7 headshots vs line 14.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 55%. Next: vs Nuclear TigeRES, Online.
Strongest: L10 average 16.7 against a 14.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 14.91 vs line 14.5 → +0.41 (2.8%)
- • Form L5 60% · L10 70% over this line
- • Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
- • Expected 41.6 rounds · 2-0 54% · OT 5.8%
Performance (last 38 maps)
Kills/Map
14.58
HS/Map
8.05
K/D
1.15
KPR
0.74
ADR
82
KAST
78%
HS%
55.2%
Multi-kill
19%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Cache)7.8 · KPR 0.691 · 20.6r
Map 2 (Dust2)7 · KPR 0.612 · 21r
Required KPR to clear0.631
Base kills (Maps 1-2)27.08
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.09%
Final projected kills26.79
× realistic HS% (55.2%)14.91
Nuclear TigeRES gives up (38 series)-4.4% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 14.5. Model: 54.3% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~13 HS · 35r28.1%
Normal39.1%
~15 HS · 42r54.2%
Close maps30.7%
~16 HS · 45r62.4%
Overtime5.8%
~18 HS · 51r79.2%
Match context
Oct 24, 05:00 PMOnlineCCT Europe 2026 Series 11
Win chance source: Polymarket 38.5%
Underdog (≤40%) → fewer rounds (−1/map) and fewer kills (−6% KPR)
Heads upNear the blowout zone — team 38% to win (ideal for Overs: 40-70%).
M1 Cache
20.6r
M2 Dust2
21r
-12% KPR here
Total
41.6r
2-0 sweep54%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)36.5%
Overtime5.8%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Cache / Dust2
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 14.5 (Over) · avg 16.7 · hit 7/10 · tap a bar
14.5
Nearby lines
| 12.5 Over | 65% | |
| 13.5 Over | 60.5% | |
| 14.5 Over | 55.7% | OFFERED |
| 15.5 Over | 49.8% | below BE |
| 16.5 Over | 39.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 14.5
Line movement
first 14.5→offno change
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 05:06 PM
- Back on board14.5 → 14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- Pulled14.5Oct 24, 12:53 PM
- First seen14.5Oct 24, 12:52 PM
Map stats
Cache
9 maps
Kills
15.9
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.3%
K/D
1.35
Inferno
8 maps
Kills
12.5
KPR
0.7
HS%
50%
K/D
1.1
Dust2
8 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
60.9%
K/D
1.01
Mirage
7 maps
Kills
14.1
KPR
0.73
HS%
57.6%
K/D
1.14
Nuke
5 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.73
HS%
54.9%
K/D
1.05
Anubis
1 maps
Kills
20
KPR
0.95
HS%
25%
K/D
2
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-20 | FOKUS | 10 Cache 13-16 | 6 Nuke 7-13 | 16 | L | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | FORZE Reload | 9 Dust2 13-10 | 11 Cache 11-13 | 20 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-19 | Bushido Wildcats | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 7 Inferno 13-1 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | UNiTY | 5 Mirage 6-13 | 6 Cache 11-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-15 | Just Players | 6 Mirage 13-7 | 10 Cache 13-4 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-08 | Acend | 11 Cache 13-10 | 8 Inferno 11-13 | 19 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-06 | MASONIC | 9 Nuke 9-13 | 8 Dust2 13-2 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-05 | Leo | 11 Nuke 10-13 | 14 Dust2 13-11 | 25 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Butterfly | 5 Inferno 13-11 | 8 Mirage 13-2 | 13 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-01 | EAC | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 7 Mirage 7-13 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-28 | Black Phoenix | 5 Dust2 13-11 | 15 Cache 13-11 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Saint Sinners | 0 Inferno 0-1 | 16 Mirage 13-9 | 16 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Illyrians | 9 Mirage 7-13 | 9 Cache 13-2 | 18 | Split | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | Nuclear TigeRES | 10 Inferno 13-7 | 7 Dust2 14-16 | 17 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-09-24 | BIG Academy | 5 Cache 13-5 | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 10 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-23 | STATE | 4 Inferno 13-9 | 10 Nuke 10-13 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-22 | Black Phoenix | 5 Anubis 13-8 | 11 Dust2 13-10 | 16 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-21 | INOX Division | 5 Cache 13-8 | 9 Nuke 13-11 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-19 | PCIFIC | 6 Inferno 5-13 | 8 Dust2 13-7 | 14 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |









































































































































































