KillsBetter playLean
Line
31
Pick
OVER
Projection
34.4
Hit
60%
EV+
+3.9%
Edge
+3.4
L10
40%
HeadshotsLean
Line
18
Pick
OVER
Projection
19.94
Hit
56.8%
EV+
-1.7%
Edge
+1.9
L10
40%

Rifler
EliGe
Liquid vs MOUZ
LEAN · OVER 18
BEST OVER · UD 16.5PP18UD16.5
▲ L5 19.8 · L20 18.1
Hit rates at 18 (Over)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
40%
4/10
L20
36%
5/14
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
High
±5.81
Previous meeting · vs MOUZ
1/1 hit · avg 28 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 13-16 · Inferno 16-12 · Split
28
Over 18 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN
18.1
5/14 hit at 18
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm EliGE is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 18
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Needs 19+ HS (~33 kills at 58% HS): 0.697 KPR over ~45 rounds. His Kills line is 28.5: backing Kills Over needs ~4 fewer kills, usually the easier play. Main danger: a fast 2-0 (50%) or blowout (33.3%) cuts rounds.
Side
Over
Projection
19.94
Raw edge
+1.9
Cons. hit
56.8%
EV+
-1.7%
Rating
5/10
Exp. rounds
44.5
Line
18
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
56.8%
+2.9 →
Learned
59.7%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Over 16-20
All players · Headshots
57.7%149 picks
This player
100%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 63.1% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge +1.9 below ±2.0 minimum
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- High form volatility
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 40.0% at this line
- L20 hit rate ≥ 55%: L20 35.7% at this line
Sharp checks · 4/6
Big enough sample · 14 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 40.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 35.7% at this line
Game script fits · 2-0 sweep 50% (Overs need rounds)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (20) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 19.0 headshots vs line 15.5 (7/10 over). KPR 0.74, HS 58%. Next: vs MOUZ, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 19.0 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
- 36% of recent maps were blowouts (13-5 or worse)
The read
Signal
PARTIAL
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 19.94 vs line 18 → +1.94 (10.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 40% over this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.5 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 10.6%
Performance (last 28 maps)
Kills/Map
15.64
HS/Map
9.07
K/D
1.16
KPR
0.74
ADR
81.4
KAST
72.4%
HS%
58%
Multi-kill
18.6%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)10 · KPR 0.745 · 23.4r
Map 2 (Inferno)10 · KPR 0.828 · 21.1r
Required KPR to clear0.697
Base kills (Maps 1-2)34.9
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-1.20%
Final projected kills34.48
× realistic HS% (58%)19.94
MOUZ gives up (78 series)-5.3% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Over 18. Model: 63.1% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps33.3%
~17 HS · 37r33.9%
Normal53.4%
~21 HS · 47r66.5%
Close maps2.7%
~21 HS · 48r68.4%
Overtime10.6%
~24 HS · 54r82.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
23.4r
+1% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.1r
+12% KPR here
Total
44.5r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)13.3%
Overtime10.6%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)33.3%
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 18 (Over) · avg 19.0 · hit 4/10 · tap a bar
18
Nearby lines
| 16 Over | 64.4% | |
| 17 Over | 60.9% | |
| 18 Over | 56.8% | OFFERED |
| 19 Over | 53.3% | below BE |
| 20 Over | 49.5% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 18
Line movement
first 15.5→18+2.5
- Back on board16 → 18Oct 24, 09:06 PM
- Pulled16Oct 24, 09:11 AM
- Back on board16 → 16Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Pulled16Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Moved down16.5 → 16Oct 24, 05:58 AM
- Back on board16.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 05:21 AM
- Pulled16.5Oct 24, 04:41 AM
- Moved up15.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 03:59 AM
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 03:44 AM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 02:45 AM
- Moved down16.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 02:43 AM
- Moved up15.5 → 16.5Oct 24, 12:57 AM
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
18.2
KPR
0.87
HS%
56.9%
K/D
1.45
Cache
5 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
56.8%
K/D
1
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
12.8
KPR
0.67
HS%
46.9%
K/D
0.98
Anubis
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.85
HS%
55.2%
K/D
1.46
Mirage
4 maps
Kills
17.2
KPR
0.77
HS%
68.1%
K/D
1.17
Nuke
3 maps
Kills
11
KPR
0.72
HS%
60.6%
K/D
0.97
Ancient
1 maps
Kills
22
KPR
0.76
HS%
72.7%
K/D
0.88
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | MOUZ | 16 Ancient 13-16 | 12 Inferno 16-12 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-20 | magic | 8 Anubis 10-13 | 3 Dust2 10-13 | 11 | L | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-10-19 | fnatic | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 8 Cache 4-13 | 18 | L | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-16 | Ninjas in Pyjamas | 13 Mirage 13-9 | 15 Nuke 10-13 | 28 | Split | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-10-13 | JiJieHao | 8 Mirage 13-11 | 6 Cache 13-2 | 14 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | 100 Thieves | 2 Dust2 0-13 | 10 Inferno 13-8 | 12 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | BBL | 5 Nuke 9-13 | 12 Mirage 13-8 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Wildcard | 9 Inferno 13-4 | 12 Anubis 13-9 | 21 | W | Over ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-26 | M80 | 11 Cache 16-13 | 6 Anubis 13-2 | 17 | W | Under ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-09-25 | NRG | 10 Dust2 13-11 | 14 Mirage 13-10 | 24 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-09-25 | Chicken Coop | 11 Inferno 13-3 | 7 Cache 13-4 | 18 | W | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-09 | 1win | 6 Dust2 5-13 | 11 Anubis 13-6 | 17 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-08 | Metizport | 10 Cache 13-9 | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 20 | W | Over ✓ | |
| 2026-08-07 | Dhala | 9 Dust2 13-4 | 0 Nuke 0-1 | 9 | Split | Under ✗ | BO |







































































































































































