KillsBetter playRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.67
Hit
45.2%
EV+
-21.7%
Edge
-0.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsRisk
Line
19.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
19.44
Hit
39.6%
EV+
-31.5%
Edge
-0.1
L10
30%

Rifler
xelex
MOUZ vs Liquid
RISK · UNDER 29.5
SAME LINE ON ALL APPSPP29.5UD29.5
≈ L5 30.2 · L20 29.9Risk · Recent form (L5/L10) leans the other way +1
Hit rates at 29.5 (Under)
L5
40%
2/5
L10
50%
5/10
L20
55%
11/20
H2H
0%
0/1
Volatility
Medium
±7.03
Previous meeting · vs Liquid
0/1 hit · avg 34 kills on Maps 1-2
2026-10-24 · PGL Masters Bucharest 2026
Ancient 16-13 · Inferno 12-16 · Split
34
Over 29.5 ✗
LAN vs online form
LAN
29.9
11/20 hit at 29.5
Online · this match
—
no series
Avg kills on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Veto confirmed — re-check map order
- Confirm xelex is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 29.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match schedule
prizepicks · Kills · Maps 1-2Risk
What to watch · Stays under with 29 kills or fewer: below 0.658 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (14.4%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
28.67
Raw edge
-0.8
Cons. hit
45.2%
EV+
-21.7%
Rating
1/10
Exp. rounds
44.8
Line
29.5
Verdict
Risk
Plain model
45.2%
+8.7 →
Learned
53.9%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 27.5-31.5
All players · Kills
44%332 picks
This player
0%1 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 54.7% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±3 (pref ±4)
- Edge -0.8 below ±3.0 minimum
- Recent form (L5/L10) does not lean the same way
- EV+ not positive at current payout
- L10 hit rate ≥ 60%: L10 50.0% at this line
Sharp checks · 5/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 50.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 55.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 14% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (28.02) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 30.5 kills vs line 29.0 (5/10 over). KPR 0.69, HS 67%. Next: vs Liquid, LAN/Online unknown.
Strongest: L10 average 30.5 against a 29.0 line
Biggest risk: Normal CS2 variance
The read
Signal
MIXED
The call
PASS
Value
NO VALUE
- • Model 28.67 vs line 29.5 → -0.83 (-2.8%)
- • Form L5 40% · L10 50% under this line
- • Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
- • Expected 44.8 rounds · 2-0 50% · OT 14.4%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.93
HS/Map
10
K/D
1.04
KPR
0.69
ADR
74.7
KAST
72.7%
HS%
67%
Multi-kill
17.4%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)14.2 · KPR 0.616 · 23.1r
Map 2 (Inferno)13.8 · KPR 0.637 · 21.7r
Required KPR to clear0.658
Base kills (Maps 1-2)28.05
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.11%
Final projected kills28.02
Liquid gives up (41 series)-5.2% vs norm
Likely kills totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 29.5. Model: 54.7% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps24.4%
~24 kills · 38r83.1%
Normal44.8%
~29 kills · 45r57.8%
Close maps16.4%
~31 kills · 48r44.4%
Overtime14.4%
~35 kills · 54r23.7%
Match context
Oct 24, 10:00 AMOnline
Win chance source: —
Win chance unknown — no favourite adjustment
M1 Ancient
23.1r
-10% KPR here
M2 Inferno
21.7r
-7% KPR here
Total
44.8r
2-0 sweep50%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)30.8%
Overtime14.4%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)24.4%
Veto confirmed (HLTV): Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 29.5 (Under) · avg 30.5 · hit 5/10 · tap a bar
29.5
Nearby lines
| 27.5 Under | 36.4% | below BE |
| 28.5 Under | 41.8% | below BE |
| 29.5 Under | 45.2% | OFFERED |
| 30.5 Under | 48.6% | below BE |
| 31.5 Under | 51.8% | below BE |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 29.5
Line movement
first 29→29.5+0.5
- Back on board29 → 29.5Oct 24, 10:16 PM
- Pulled29Oct 24, 09:11 AM
- Back on board29 → 29Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- Pulled29Oct 24, 09:10 AM
- First seen29Oct 24, 12:00 AM
Map stats
Mirage
10 maps
Kills
16.7
KPR
0.76
HS%
65.9%
K/D
1.18
Cache
7 maps
Kills
12.6
KPR
0.61
HS%
67%
K/D
0.99
Dust2
7 maps
Kills
16
KPR
0.75
HS%
67%
K/D
1.26
Inferno
6 maps
Kills
13.3
KPR
0.61
HS%
71.2%
K/D
0.9
Ancient
6 maps
Kills
13.8
KPR
0.58
HS%
63.9%
K/D
0.8
Nuke
4 maps
Kills
16.8
KPR
0.74
HS%
68.7%
K/D
1.12
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-24 | Liquid | 22 Ancient 16-13 | 12 Inferno 12-16 | 34 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-11 | Vitality | 12 Cache 8-13 | 10 Inferno 7-13 | 22 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-10 | Spirit | 13 Dust2 13-7 | 10 Mirage 5-13 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-09 | FURIA | 18 Nuke 13-11 | 14 Inferno 13-6 | 32 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-10-05 | Spirit | 18 Dust2 13-5 | 22 Mirage 13-11 | 40 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | FURIA | 9 Cache 13-4 | 13 Mirage 13-7 | 22 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | M80 | 18 Cache 13-9 | 8 Mirage 13-6 | 26 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-19 | FURIA | 8 Cache 8-13 | 34 Mirage 19-16 | 42 | Split | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-18 | Natus Vincere | 10 Cache 10-13 | 18 Inferno 13-10 | 28 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-17 | NRG | 20 Cache 11-13 | 16 Inferno 13-5 | 36 | Split | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-09-06 | Spirit | 7 Dust2 8-13 | 22 Mirage 13-11 | 29 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-05 | Vitality | 23 Dust2 13-11 | 16 Mirage 13-7 | 39 | W | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-31 | Falcons | 15 Nuke 6-13 | 16 Ancient 13-6 | 31 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-08-29 | Inner Circle | 14 Ancient 13-4 | 14 Mirage 13-5 | 28 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-27 | 9z | 11 Cache 13-4 | 20 Nuke 13-7 | 31 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-08-21 | FUT | 25 Dust2 13-16 | 9 Ancient 5-13 | 34 | L | Over ✗ | OTBO |
| 2026-08-19 | GamerLegion | 11 Mirage 13-11 | 13 Ancient 19-22 | 24 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-16 | PARIVISION | 14 Dust2 13-4 | 10 Inferno 13-10 | 24 | W | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-08-14 | FUT | 9 Ancient 6-13 | 14 Nuke 16-12 | 23 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-08-02 | Spirit | 12 Dust2 13-8 | 17 Mirage 13-4 | 29 | W | Under ✓ | BO |







































































































































































