KillsRisk
Line
29.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
28.7
Hit
45.2%
EV+
-21.7%
Edge
-0.8
L10
50%
HeadshotsBetter playLean
Line
15.5
Pick
UNDER
Projection
13.57
Hit
62%
EV+
+7.4%
Edge
-1.9
L10
90%

Rifler
tomate
Galorys vs paiN
LEAN · UNDER 15.5
▼ L5 10.4 · L20 14.7LAN UNDER · 35% hit
Hit rates at 15.5 (Under)
L5
100%
5/5
L10
90%
9/10
L20
65%
13/20
H2H
100%
1/1
Volatility
Low
±3.32
Previous meeting · vs paiN
1/1 hit · avg 13 headshots on Maps 1-2
2026-09-26 · FERJEE In House Season 2
Cache 9-13 · Dust2 5-13 · L
13
Under 15.5 ✓
LAN vs online form
LAN · this match
11.7
6/6 hit at 15.5
Online
16
7/14 hit at 15.5
Avg headshots on Maps 1-2. The learned hit % now leans toward his form in this setting.
Late checks & sources
- Map veto (currently estimated)
- Confirm tomate is in the starting five
- Re-check line: PASS at 15.5
bo3.gg per-map player statsbo3.gg match scheduleWin chance: Polymarket 41.0%
Unverified / missing: Maps 1-2 not confirmed
prizepicks · Headshots · Maps 1-2Lean
What to watch · Stays under with 15 HS or fewer (under ~32 kills at 49.3% HS): below 0.693 KPR over ~45 rounds. Main danger: overtime (10%) or long close maps add rounds.
Side
Under
Projection
13.57
Raw edge
-1.9
Cons. hit
62%
EV+
+7.4%
Rating
5.5/10
Exp. rounds
45.4
Line
15.5
Verdict
Lean
Plain model
62%
-7.2 →
Learned
54.8%
what past results change
learning 1x
learning 1x
Same-line track record · Under 13.5-17.5
All players · Headshots
40.7%263 picks
This player
66.7%3 picks
Green = above the 57.7% a 2-pick needs. Graded picks only, pushes left out.
raw 71.9% → −8% haircut · cap 68% · per-leg 1.732x · threshold ±2 (pref ±2.5)
- Edge -1.9 below ±2.0 minimum
Sharp checks · 6/6
Big enough sample · 20 recent series (need 8+)
L10 hit rate ≥ 60% · L10 90.0% at this line
L20 hit rate ≥ 55% · L20 65.0% at this line
Game script fits · OT chance 10% (Unders hate OT)
Standard line · Standard payout line
Bo3 series · Maps 1-2 guaranteed
Projection = 70% model (14.93) + 30% last-5 average
Evidence & risk
Last 10 series Maps 1-2: avg 12.0 headshots vs line 15.5 (1/10 over). KPR 0.63, HS 49%. Next: vs paiN, LAN.
Strongest: L10 average 12.0 against a 15.5 line
Biggest risk: Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
- Map veto not confirmed — Maps 1-2 estimated from recent map frequency
The read
Signal
ALIGNED
The call
PASS
Value
THIN
- • Model 13.57 vs line 15.5 → -1.93 (-12.5%)
- • Form L5 100% · L10 90% under this line
- • Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
- • Expected 45.4 rounds · 2-0 53% · OT 10%
Performance (last 40 maps)
Kills/Map
14.9
HS/Map
7.35
K/D
1.08
KPR
0.63
ADR
71.1
KAST
75.6%
HS%
49.3%
Multi-kill
14%
Kills projection
Map 1 (Ancient)7.8 · KPR 0.703 · 22.7r
Map 2 (Inferno)7.1 · KPR 0.638 · 22.7r
Required KPR to clear0.693
Base kills (Maps 1-2)30.44
Sweep / blowout / OT adj.-0.51%
Final projected kills30.29
× realistic HS% (49.3%)13.57
paiN gives up (81 series)-2.8% vs norm
Likely HS totals · Maps 1-2
Bars in colour cash the Under 15.5. Model: 71.9% before the safety haircut.
Lopsided maps22.7%
~11 HS · 38r87.9%
Normal50.6%
~14 HS · 46r69.7%
Close maps16.7%
~15 HS · 49r61.6%
Overtime10%
~16 HS · 55r43.9%
Match context
Oct 24, 06:00 PMLANCircuit X Curitiba 4
Win chance source: Polymarket 41.0%
Slight lean (40–45% / 65–70%) → no adjustment
Game scriptNeutral for Under — team 41% to win (ideal is 40% or lower).
M1 Ancient
22.7r
+11% KPR here
M2 Inferno
22.7r
+1% KPR here
Total
45.4r
2-0 sweep53%
Long Map 2 (24+ rounds)26.7%
Overtime10%
Blowout (13-5 or worse)22.7%
Likely maps from his team's recent map frequency: Ancient / Inferno
Recent Maps 1-2 form
10 series · line 15.5 (Under) · avg 12.0 · hit 9/10 · tap a bar
15.5
Nearby lines
| 13.5 Under | 48.8% | below BE |
| 14.5 Under | 55.7% | below BE |
| 15.5 Under | 62% | OFFERED |
| 16.5 Under | 64.5% | |
| 17.5 Under | 65.7% |
Break-even per leg: 57.7%
Becomes a PASS at: 15.5
Line movement
first 15.5→offno change
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 06:00 PM
- Back on board15.5 → 15.5Oct 24, 05:12 AM
- Pulled15.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
- First seen15.5Oct 24, 05:11 AM
Map stats
Ancient
16 maps
Kills
16.4
KPR
0.72
HS%
49.2%
K/D
1.09
Inferno
9 maps
Kills
14.8
KPR
0.64
HS%
47.4%
K/D
1.02
Anubis
5 maps
Kills
15.8
KPR
0.79
HS%
49.4%
K/D
1.58
Dust2
5 maps
Kills
11.8
KPR
0.62
HS%
59.3%
K/D
1.05
Cache
3 maps
Kills
11.7
KPR
0.57
HS%
42.9%
K/D
0.9
Nuke
2 maps
Kills
14
KPR
0.6
HS%
46.4%
K/D
0.78
Recent Maps 1-2 results
| Date | Opp | Map 1 | Map 2 | Total | Team | Prop | Flags |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-10-23 | BESTIA | 4 Ancient 9-13 | 6 Inferno 11-13 | 10 | L | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 7 Anubis 13-9 | 6 Inferno 9-13 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | BARCA | 5 Inferno 6-13 | 5 Ancient 13-6 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-21 | Fluxo | 5 Anubis 8-13 | 6 Inferno 16-14 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-14 | LP | 4 Inferno 5-13 | 4 Ancient 13-3 | 8 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-13 | ex-Keyd Stars | 7 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Ancient 16-14 | 15 | W | Under ✓ | OT |
| 2026-10-12 | Bounty Hunters | 5 Cache 13-6 | 6 Ancient 9-13 | 11 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-11 | Yawara | 9 Anubis 13-4 | 11 Ancient 13-2 | 20 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-10 | MEIA NOITE | 5 Dust2 8-13 | 4 Ancient 13-6 | 9 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-09 | Turma do Pagode | 6 Ancient 13-10 | 7 Nuke 13-11 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-07 | Grêmio | 5 Inferno 11-13 | 15 Ancient 25-28 | 20 | L | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-10-04 | Turma do Pagode | 4 Anubis 13-4 | 6 Nuke 10-13 | 10 | Split | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-10-04 | Procyon | 7 Inferno 13-4 | 10 Ancient 13-6 | 17 | W | Over ✗ | BO |
| 2026-10-03 | BESTIA Academy | 5 Dust2 13-6 | 8 Ancient 13-7 | 13 | W | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-10-02 | Grêmio | 18 Inferno 19-16 | 11 Ancient 13-9 | 29 | W | Over ✗ | OT |
| 2026-09-28 | Turma do Pagode | 14 Anubis 10-13 | 4 Ancient 7-13 | 18 | L | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Procyon | 6 Inferno 6-13 | 12 Ancient 13-9 | 18 | Split | Over ✗ | |
| 2026-09-27 | Bounty Hunters | 4 Cache 7-13 | 9 Ancient 13-8 | 13 | Split | Under ✓ | |
| 2026-09-26 | paiN | 6 Cache 9-13 | 7 Dust2 5-13 | 13 | L | Under ✓ | BO |
| 2026-09-25 | METANOIA Wolves | 11 Dust2 13-5 | 12 Ancient 13-10 | 23 | W | Over ✗ | BO |








































































































































































